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Australia tour of South Africa · 2026/27 · Men
18 Oct 2026 · Test
St George's Park, Gqeberha · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sky Sports Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-22
Sky Sports Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-21
Sky Sports Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-20
Sky Sports Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-19
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aiden Markrambowled · Scott Boland2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Scott Boland | 11 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 39.29 |
 Marques Ackermancaught · Alex Carey · Scott Boland0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Scott Boland | 6 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 15.79 |
| David Bedinghamcaught · Alex Carey · Scott Boland 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Scott Boland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Temba Bavumacaught · Alex Carey · Mitchell Starc18 fours · 1 sixes |
| caught · Alex Carey · b Mitchell Starc |
| 179 |
| 334 |
| 18 |
| 1 |
| 53.59 |
| Matthew Breetzkecaught · Alex Carey · Mitchell Starc 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Mitchell Starc | 4 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 23.53 |
|---|
 Ryan Rickeltoncaught · Matt Renshaw · Scott Boland5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matt Renshaw · b Scott Boland | 31 | 51 | 5 | 0 | 60.78 |
|---|
 Wiaan Muldercaught · Matt Renshaw · Mitchell Starc1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matt Renshaw · b Mitchell Starc | 13 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 34.21 |
|---|
 Marco Jansencaught · Travis Head · Scott Boland9 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Travis Head · b Scott Boland | 85 | 100 | 9 | 3 | 85.00 |
|---|
 Simon Harmerbowled · Marnus Labuschagne10 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Marnus Labuschagne | 82 | 157 | 10 | 1 | 52.23 |
|---|
 Kagiso Rabadanot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc4 maidens · 5 wides · 1 no-balls | 24.1 | 4 | 89 | 3 | 3.68 | 5 | 1 |
 Josh Hazlewood2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 14.0 | 2 | 43 | 0 | 3.07 | 0 | 0 |
 Scott Boland7 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 29.0 | 7 | 81 | 5 | 2.79 | 0 | 0 |
 Pat Cummins3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 26.0 | 3 | 96 | 0 | 3.69 | 0 | 0 |
 Beau Webster6 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 19.0 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 2.26 | 0 | 0 |
 Matt Renshaw1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 33 | 0 | 4.13 | 0 | 0 |
 Nic Maddinson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 4.80 | 0 | 0 |
 Marnus Labuschagne0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-12 (Aiden Markram, 8.4) · 2-12 (David Bedingham, 8.5) · 3-25 (Marques Ackerman, 14.3) · 4-40 (Matthew Breetzke, 21.3) · 5-92 (Ryan Rickelton, 39.4) · 6-110 (Wiaan Mulder, 50.0) · 7-242 (Marco Jansen, 80.5) · 8-425 (Simon Harmer, 127.0) · 9-425 (Temba Bavuma, 127.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 4/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 10/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 11/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 11/0 |
| 8 | 1 | 12/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 12/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 13/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 18/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 20/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 24/2 |
| 14 | 1 | 25/2 |
| 15 | 0 | 25/3 |
| 16 | 1 | 26/3 |
| 17 | 1 | 27/3 |
| 18 | 3 | 30/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 36/3 |
| 20 | 2 | 38/3 |
| 21 | 2 | 40/3 |
| 22 | 2 | 42/4 |
| 23 | 1 | 43/4 |
| 24 | 4 | 47/4 |
| 25 | 0 | 47/4 |
| 26 | 5 | 52/4 |
| 27 | 0 | 52/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 54/4 |
| 29 | 0 | 54/4 |
| 30 | 8 | 62/4 |
| 31 | 0 | 62/4 |
| 32 | 3 | 65/4 |
| 33 | 1 | 66/4 |
| 34 | 1 | 67/4 |
| 35 | 6 | 73/4 |
| 36 | 8 | 81/4 |
| 37 | 5 | 86/4 |
| 38 | 6 | 92/4 |
| 39 | 0 | 92/4 |
| 40 | 0 | 92/5 |
| 41 | 3 | 95/5 |
| 42 | 1 | 96/5 |
| 43 | 1 | 97/5 |
| 44 | 0 | 97/5 |
| 45 | 6 | 103/5 |
| 46 | 2 | 105/5 |
| 47 | 1 | 106/5 |
| 48 | 2 | 108/5 |
| 49 | 2 | 110/5 |
| 50 | 0 | 110/6 |
| 51 | 4 | 114/6 |
| 52 | 13 | 127/6 |
| 53 | 8 | 135/6 |
| 54 | 5 | 140/6 |
| 55 | 7 | 147/6 |
| 56 | 3 | 150/6 |
| 57 | 1 | 151/6 |
| 58 | 12 | 163/6 |
| 59 | 6 | 169/6 |
| 60 | 4 | 173/6 |
| 61 | 2 | 175/6 |
| 62 | 5 | 180/6 |
| 63 | 10 | 190/6 |
| 64 | 1 | 191/6 |
| 65 | 3 | 194/6 |
| 66 | 7 | 201/6 |
| 67 | 0 | 201/6 |
| 68 | 6 | 207/6 |
| 69 | 3 | 210/6 |
| 70 | 3 | 213/6 |
| 71 | 3 | 216/6 |
| 72 | 0 | 216/6 |
| 73 | 2 | 218/6 |
| 74 | 2 | 220/6 |
| 75 | 2 | 222/6 |
| 76 | 5 | 227/6 |
| 77 | 3 | 230/6 |
| 78 | 2 | 232/6 |
| 79 | 9 | 241/6 |
| 80 | 1 | 242/6 |
| 81 | 0 | 242/7 |
| 82 | 1 | 243/7 |
| 83 | 1 | 244/7 |
| 84 | 7 | 251/7 |
| 85 | 4 | 255/7 |
| 86 | 8 | 263/7 |
| 87 | 1 | 264/7 |
| 88 | 3 | 267/7 |
| 89 | 4 | 271/7 |
| 90 | 5 | 276/7 |
| 91 | 5 | 281/7 |
| 92 | 3 | 284/7 |
| 93 | 4 | 288/7 |
| 94 | 0 | 288/7 |
| 95 | 1 | 289/7 |
| 96 | 9 | 298/7 |
| 97 | 8 | 306/7 |
| 98 | 6 | 312/7 |
| 99 | 1 | 313/7 |
| 100 | 5 | 318/7 |
| 101 | 0 | 318/7 |
| 102 | 0 | 318/7 |
| 103 | 7 | 325/7 |
| 104 | 3 | 328/7 |
| 105 | 1 | 329/7 |
| 106 | 6 | 335/7 |
| 107 | 3 | 338/7 |
| 108 | 2 | 340/7 |
| 109 | 3 | 343/7 |
| 110 | 6 | 349/7 |
| 111 | 2 | 351/7 |
| 112 | 5 | 356/7 |
| 113 | 5 | 361/7 |
| 114 | 2 | 363/7 |
| 115 | 0 | 363/7 |
| 116 | 8 | 371/7 |
| 117 | 1 | 372/7 |
| 118 | 4 | 376/7 |
| 119 | 2 | 378/7 |
| 120 | 4 | 382/7 |
| 121 | 3 | 385/7 |
| 122 | 5 | 390/7 |
| 123 | 9 | 399/7 |
| 124 | 7 | 406/7 |
| 125 | 7 | 413/7 |
| 126 | 7 | 420/7 |
| 127 | 5 | 425/8 |
| 128 | 0 | 425/9 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beau Webster: Dave Morton · Public domain
Nic Maddinson: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Marques Ackerman: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Scott Boland: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Simon Harmer: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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