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Photo: Aravind Sivaraj
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Ireland vs South Africa · 2024/25 · Men
7 Oct 2024 · ODI
Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 14%; Ireland batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Andrew Balbirniecaught · Tristan Stubbs · Lizaad Williams4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tristan Stubbs · b Lizaad Williams | 45 | 73 | 4 | 1 | 61.64 |
 Paul Stirlingbowled · Ottniel Baartman8 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b Ottniel Baartman | 88 | 92 | 8 | 3 | 95.65 |
| Curtis Campherbowled · Ottniel Baartman 4 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Ottniel Baartman | 34 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 94.44 |
 Harry Tectorrun out · Ryan Rickelton, Kyle Verreynne · Andile Phehlukwayo4 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Ryan Rickelton, Kyle Verreynne |
Ireland's chances ranged from 14% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 86%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 60 |
| 48 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 125.00 |
| Lorcan Tuckercaught · Ryan Rickelton · Andile Phehlukwayo 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ryan Rickelton · b Andile Phehlukwayo | 26 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 92.86 |
|---|
 George Dockrellcaught · Reeza Hendricks · Andile Phehlukwayo1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Reeza Hendricks · b Andile Phehlukwayo | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
| Mark Adairbowled · Lizaad Williams 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lizaad Williams | 8 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 72.73 |
|---|
 Fionn Handlbw · Lizaad Williams0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Lizaad Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Graham Humebowled · Lizaad Williams 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lizaad Williams | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Matthew Humphreysnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Craig Youngnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lungi Ngidi0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 70 | 0 | 7.78 | 3 | 0 |
| Lizaad Williams2 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 56 | 4 | 5.60 | 2 | 1 |
| Ottniel Baartman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Bjorn Fortuin1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 44 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Smith0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 5.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Andile Phehlukwayo0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Tristan Stubbs0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-101 (Andrew Balbirnie, 23.2) · 2-159 (Curtis Campher, 32.1) · 3-179 (Paul Stirling, 34.3) · 4-233 (Lorcan Tucker, 42.4) · 5-243 (George Dockrell, 44.3) · 6-274 (Mark Adair, 48.1) · 7-274 (Fionn Hand, 48.2) · 8-279 (Graham Hume, 49.0) · 9-282 (Harry Tector, 49.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 16/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 20/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 20/0 |
| 7 | 7 | 27/0 |
| 8 | 9 | 36/0 |
| 9 | 1 | 37/0 |
| 10 | 0 | 37/0 |
| 11 | 6 | 43/0 |
| 12 | 2 | 45/0 |
| 13 | 8 | 53/0 |
| 14 | 5 | 58/0 |
| 15 | 9 | 67/0 |
| 16 | 3 | 70/0 |
| 17 | 4 | 74/0 |
| 18 | 5 | 79/0 |
| 19 | 11 | 90/0 |
| 20 | 3 | 93/0 |
| 21 | 3 | 96/0 |
| 22 | 3 | 99/0 |
| 23 | 2 | 101/0 |
| 24 | 7 | 108/1 |
| 25 | 6 | 114/1 |
| 26 | 10 | 124/1 |
| 27 | 9 | 133/1 |
| 28 | 7 | 140/1 |
| 29 | 1 | 141/1 |
| 30 | 8 | 149/1 |
| 31 | 3 | 152/1 |
| 32 | 7 | 159/1 |
| 33 | 6 | 165/2 |
| 34 | 9 | 174/2 |
| 35 | 5 | 179/3 |
| 36 | 6 | 185/3 |
| 37 | 4 | 189/3 |
| 38 | 5 | 194/3 |
| 39 | 4 | 198/3 |
| 40 | 14 | 212/3 |
| 41 | 6 | 218/3 |
| 42 | 10 | 228/3 |
| 43 | 5 | 233/4 |
| 44 | 9 | 242/4 |
| 45 | 2 | 244/5 |
| 46 | 9 | 253/5 |
| 47 | 7 | 260/5 |
| 48 | 14 | 274/5 |
| 49 | 5 | 279/8 |
| 50 | 5 | 284/9 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew Balbirnie: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Fionn Hand: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Reeza Hendricks: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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