ScotlandversusAustralia

4 Sept 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Australia won by 7 wickets

Scotland20.0 overs154/9 Australia9.4 overs156/3 Grange Cricket Club Ground, Raeburn Place, Edinburgh ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

30%Scotland70%Australia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than Scotland (1,726 vs 1,587 on our results rating)
Scotland are playing at home in the United Kingdom
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 1 and Scotland won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Scotland started on 29%; Scotland batted first.

Scotland’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

Scotland's chances ranged from 0% to 42% during the match (Australia: 58% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.4: XC Bartlett to OJ Hairs, OJ Hairs out. Australia up from 70% to 79%.
6.4: XC Bartlett to BJ McMullen, BJ McMullen out. Australia up from 62% to 72%.
2nd inns 0.3: BJ McMullen to J Fraser-McGurk, J Fraser-McGurk out. Scotland up from 21% to 32%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Scotland154/9 Australia156/3

Innings 1

Scotland

154/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Scotland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
George Munseycaught · Josh Inglis · Sean Abbott 2 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Josh Inglis · b Sean Abbott	28	16	2	3	175.00
Ollie Hairscaught · Mitchell Marsh · Xavier Bartlett 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mitchell Marsh · b Xavier Bartlett	6	6	1	0	100.00
Brandon McMullencaught · Jake Fraser-McGurk · Xavier Bartlett 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jake Fraser-McGurk · b Xavier Bartlett	19	15	3	0	126.67
Richie Berringtoncaught · Xavier Bartlett · Adam Zampa 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Xavier Bartlett · b Adam Zampa	23	20	2	1	115.00
Matty Crosscaught · Xavier Bartlett · Cameron Green 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Xavier Bartlett · b Cameron Green	27	21

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Riley Meredith0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	1	8.50	0
Xavier Bartlett0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	2	5.75	0
Sean Abbott0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	3	9.75	2
Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	2	8.25	0
Marcus Stoinis0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	0	5.00	1
Cameron Green0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	12	1	6.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	4	10/1
3	12	22/1
4	7	29/1
5	18	47/1
6	9	56/2
7	7	63/3
8	12	75/3
9	6	81/3
10	3	84/3
11	8	92/3
12	10	102/4
13	7	109/4
14	4	113/4
15	4	117/5
16	8	125/6
17	5	130/6
18	9	139/7
19	5	144/8
20	10	154/9

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