NorthamptonshireversusGlamorgan

22 May 2026 · T20

County Ground, Northampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northamptonshire won by 3 runs

Northamptonshire20.0 overs165/8 Glamorgan19.5 overs162/8 County Ground, Northampton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northamptonshire started on 55%; Northamptonshire batted first.

Northamptonshire’s chance of winning (%) · Glamorgan is the rest

Northamptonshire's chances ranged from 24% to 97% during the match (Glamorgan: 3% to 76%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.5: BW Sanderson to DA Douthwaite, six by DA Douthwaite. Glamorgan up from 34% to 67%.
2nd inns 18.6: GLS Scrimshaw to MS Crane, MS Crane out. Northamptonshire up from 33% to 61%.
2nd inns 19.3: GLS Scrimshaw to DA Douthwaite, four by DA Douthwaite. Glamorgan up from 26% to 54%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northamptonshire165/8 Glamorgan162/8

Innings 1