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ICC Men's T20 World Cup East Asia-Pacific Qualifier · 2026 · Men
14 May 2026 · T20
Sano International Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Papua New Guinea more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Papua New Guinea started on 73%; Papua New Guinea batted first.
Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 52% to 100% during the match (Indonesia: 0% to 48%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudhakar Jegannathancaught · Lega Siaka · Assad Vala 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lega Siaka · b Assad Vala | 24 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 82.76 |
| Dharma Kesumabowled · Aue Oru 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Aue Oru | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 44.44 |
| Kavin Chaddharun out · Hila Vare, John Kariko · Lega Siaka 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Hila Vare, John Kariko | 30 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 93.75 |
| Gede Priandanabowled · Sese Bau 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sese Bau | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| S Kharvibowled · Assad Vala 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Assad Vala | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| bowled · b Aue Oru |
| 21 |
| 20 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 105.00 |
| Gede Artabowled · John Kariko 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b John Kariko | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Ketut Artawanbowled · Aue Oru 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Aue Oru | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| AA Rahayubowled · Aue Oru 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Aue Oru | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| F Banunaeknot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kabua Morea0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Alei Nao0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 4.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Aue Oru0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 4 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
| John Kariko0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Lega Siaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Assad Vala0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Sese Bau0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Nou0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-14 (Dharma Kesuma, 3.0) · 2-48 (Sudhakar Jegannathan, 9.5) · 3-56 (Gede Priandana, 11.5) · 4-57 (S Kharvi, 12.3) · 5-75 (Kavin Chaddha, 15.1) · 6-89 (Gede Arta, 17.3) · 7-91 (Danilson Hawoe, 18.2) · 8-91 (AA Rahayu, 18.4) · 9-92 (Ketut Artawan, 19.0)
Absent hurt: IK Gamantika
Recorded target: 131 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 20/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 23/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 26/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 30/1 |
| 8 | 11 | 41/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 46/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 48/2 |
| 11 | 6 | 54/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 56/3 |
| 13 | 1 | 57/4 |
| 14 | 10 | 67/4 |
| 15 | 7 | 74/4 |
| 16 | 8 | 82/5 |
| 17 | 5 | 87/5 |
| 18 | 4 | 91/6 |
| 19 | 1 | 92/9 |
Assad Vala: LondonWriting · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
