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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026 · Men
11 Aug 2026 · ODI
Forthill, Dundee · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United Arab Emirates started on 46%; United Arab Emirates batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aryansh Sharmacaught · Matthew Spoors · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Spoors · b Kaleem Sana | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
| Adeeb Usmanicaught · Shreyas Movva · Kaleem Sana 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Kaleem Sana | 12 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Muhammad Shahdadcaught · Shreyas Movva · Ansh Patel 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Ansh Patel | 20 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
 Harpreet Singhcaught · YS Samra · Kaleem Sana7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · YS Samra · b Kaleem Sana | 81 | 79 | 7 | 1 | 102.53 |
| Rahul Chopranot out 15 fours · 1 sixes |
United Arab Emirates's chances ranged from 24% to 100% during the match (Canada: 0% to 76%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 127* |
| 118 |
| 15 |
| 1 |
| 107.63 |
| Akshdeep Nathbowled · Zahid Shirzad 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zahid Shirzad | 10 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
| Sohaib Khanbowled · Zahid Shirzad 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zahid Shirzad | 6 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Aayan Afzal Khannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 39 | 3 | 3.90 | 1 | 0 |
| Zahid Shirzad1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 52 | 2 | 5.20 | 3 | 0 |
| Ansh Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 57 | 1 | 8.14 | 0 | 0 |
| Ali Shamsher Khan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 5.50 | 2 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 52 | 0 | 5.20 | 5 | 0 |
| Nicholas Kirton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 6.20 | 0 | 0 |
1-15 (Aryansh Sharma, 5.0) · 2-21 (Adeeb Usmani, 6.1) · 3-72 (Muhammad Shahdad, 16.3) · 4-181 (Harpreet Singh, 35.5) · 5-210 (Akshdeep Nath, 40.1) · 6-228 (Sohaib Khan, 44.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 1/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 2/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 12/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 15/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 21/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 22/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 25/2 |
| 9 | 1 | 26/2 |
| 10 | 7 | 33/2 |
| 11 | 7 | 40/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 47/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 53/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 57/2 |
| 15 | 7 | 64/2 |
| 16 | 7 | 71/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 77/3 |
| 18 | 3 | 80/3 |
| 19 | 4 | 84/3 |
| 20 | 3 | 87/3 |
| 21 | 4 | 91/3 |
| 22 | 8 | 99/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 101/3 |
| 24 | 8 | 109/3 |
| 25 | 3 | 112/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 115/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 117/3 |
| 28 | 3 | 120/3 |
| 29 | 9 | 129/3 |
| 30 | 9 | 138/3 |
| 31 | 8 | 146/3 |
| 32 | 4 | 150/3 |
| 33 | 13 | 163/3 |
| 34 | 4 | 167/3 |
| 35 | 12 | 179/3 |
| 36 | 6 | 185/4 |
| 37 | 3 | 188/4 |
| 38 | 2 | 190/4 |
| 39 | 8 | 198/4 |
| 40 | 12 | 210/4 |
| 41 | 3 | 213/5 |
| 42 | 5 | 218/5 |
| 43 | 6 | 224/5 |
| 44 | 3 | 227/5 |
| 45 | 1 | 228/6 |
| 46 | 7 | 235/6 |
| 47 | 10 | 245/6 |
| 48 | 11 | 256/6 |
| 49 | 16 | 272/6 |
| 50 | 10 | 282/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
