EnglandversusPakistan

11 May 2024 · T20

Edgbaston · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 53 runs

England20.0 overs163/6 Pakistan18.2 overs110/10 Edgbaston ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

91%England9%Pakistan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than Pakistan (1,712 vs 1,453 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 9 and Pakistan won 1
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 91%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

England's chances ranged from 56% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 44%).

Biggest swings

2.1: Waheeda Akhtar to A Capsey, A Capsey out. Pakistan up from 15% to 26%.
2.5: Waheeda Akhtar to FG Kemp, FG Kemp out. Pakistan up from 24% to 44%.
2nd inns 7.4: S Glenn to Muneeba Ali, Muneeba Ali out. England up from 86% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England163/6 Pakistan110/10

Innings 2

Pakistan

110/1018.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Gull Ferozacaught · Amy Jones · Lauren Bell 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Amy Jones · b Lauren Bell	17	15	3	0	113.33
Sidra Ameenlbw · Charlie Dean 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Charlie Dean	9	7	1	0	128.57
Sadaf Shamasrun out · Alice Capsey, Amy Jones · Charlie Dean 7 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Alice Capsey, Amy Jones	35	24	7	0	145.83
Muneeba Alicaught · Amy Jones · Sarah Glenn 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Amy Jones · b Sarah Glenn	10	9	1	0	111.11
Nida Darcaught · Maia Bouchier · Sarah Glenn 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Maia Bouchier · b Sarah Glenn	5	11	0	0	45.45

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Lauren Bell0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.2	22	3	6.60	2
Danielle Gibson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	30	0	10.00	1
Charlie Dean0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	1	7.25	1
Sophie Ecclestone0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	1	4.25	0
Sarah Glenn0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	12	4	3.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	12	12/0
2	4	16/0
3	8	24/1
4	21	45/1
5	5	50/1
6	7	57/2
7	6	63/2
8	4	67/3
9	5	72/3
10	5	77/3
11	6	83/4
12	2	85/5
13	1	86/6
14	2	88/7
15	1	89/9
16	5	94/9
17	10	104/9
18	5	109/9
19	1	110/10

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