IndiaversusSri Lanka

1 Oct 2026 · T20

Recorded result

India won by 124 runs

India20.0 overs169/7 Sri Lanka9.5 overs45/10 Korogi Sports Park ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

88%India12%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,778 vs 1,520 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 8 and Sri Lanka won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 87%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

India's chances ranged from 82% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 18%).

Biggest swings

1.2: SSD Arachchige to Abhishek Sharma, Abhishek Sharma out. Sri Lanka up from 9% to 13%.
2.6: KTH Ratnayake to SV Samson, SV Samson out. Sri Lanka up from 12% to 18%.
2nd inns 0.2: JJ Bumrah to Sineth Jayawardena, Sineth Jayawardena out. India up from 89% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.