**University Oval, Dunedin**
Photo: Benchill
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Super Smash · 2025/26 · Men

Northern DistrictsversusOtago

18 Jan 2026 · T20

University Oval, Dunedin · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northern Districts won by 31 runs

Northern Districts20.0 overs231/3 Otago20.0 overs200/8 University Oval, Dunedin ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Districts started on 48%; Northern Districts batted first.

Northern Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Otago is the rest

Northern Districts's chances ranged from 48% to 100% during the match (Otago: 0% to 52%).

Biggest swings

8.6: BNJ Lockrose to BR Hampton, BR Hampton out. Otago up from 20% to 26%.
2nd inns 1.6: SC Kuggeleijn to JT Todd, JT Todd out. Northern Districts up from 87% to 93%.
2nd inns 7.1: ZN Gibson to JM Cumming, JM Cumming out. Northern Districts up from 83% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.