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New Zealand tour of West Indies · 2026 · Men
11 Jul 2026 · ODI
Providence Stadium, Guyana · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 73%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Nichollscaught · Khary Pierre · Vitel Lawes 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Khary Pierre · b Vitel Lawes | 27 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 62.79 |
 Will Youngcaught and bowled · Gudakesh Motie5 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Gudakesh Motie | 49 | 63 | 5 | 0 | 77.78 |
| Mark Chapmanstumped · Shai Hope · Vitel Lawes 2 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Shai Hope · b Vitel Lawes | 27 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 103.85 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Keacy Carty · Alzarri Joseph 7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Keacy Carty · b Alzarri Joseph | 65 | 73 | 7 | 1 | 89.04 |
 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 4% to 88% during the match (West Indies: 12% to 96%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Khary Pierre |
| 25 |
| 30 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 83.33 |
| Michael Bracewellcaught · Amir Jangoo · Vitel Lawes 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amir Jangoo · b Vitel Lawes | 29 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 93.55 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnercaught · John Campbell · Alzarri Joseph 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · John Campbell · b Alzarri Joseph | 21 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 123.53 |
|---|
| Nathan Smithlbw · Alzarri Joseph 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Alzarri Joseph | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 55.56 |
|---|
 Jacob Duffybowled · Gudakesh Motie0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Gudakesh Motie | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Matthew Fisherbowled · Alzarri Joseph0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Alzarri Joseph | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Jayden Lennoxnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khary Pierre0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 39 | 1 | 3.90 | 2 | 1 |
| Shamar Joseph0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 6.13 | 1 | 0 |
| Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.5 | 0 | 41 | 4 | 4.64 | 0 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 51 | 2 | 5.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Vitel Lawes0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 54 | 3 | 5.40 | 1 | 0 |
| Sherfane Rutherford0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-80 (Henry Nicholls, 16.0) · 2-96 (Will Young, 18.5) · 3-125 (Mark Chapman, 24.3) · 4-169 (Tom Latham, 32.3) · 5-234 (Michael Bracewell, 43.2) · 6-243 (Daryl Mitchell, 45.2) · 7-251 (Nathan Smith, 47.2) · 8-256 (Jacob Duffy, 48.4) · 9-266 (Mitchell Santner, 49.3) · 10-267 (Matthew Fisher, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 13/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 15/0 |
| 6 | 14 | 29/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 35/0 |
| 8 | 7 | 42/0 |
| 9 | 2 | 44/0 |
| 10 | 1 | 45/0 |
| 11 | 8 | 53/0 |
| 12 | 3 | 56/0 |
| 13 | 7 | 63/0 |
| 14 | 8 | 71/0 |
| 15 | 4 | 75/0 |
| 16 | 5 | 80/1 |
| 17 | 2 | 82/1 |
| 18 | 10 | 92/1 |
| 19 | 5 | 97/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 103/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 106/2 |
| 22 | 5 | 111/2 |
| 23 | 3 | 114/2 |
| 24 | 7 | 121/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 126/3 |
| 26 | 9 | 135/3 |
| 27 | 7 | 142/3 |
| 28 | 1 | 143/3 |
| 29 | 5 | 148/3 |
| 30 | 7 | 155/3 |
| 31 | 5 | 160/3 |
| 32 | 7 | 167/3 |
| 33 | 4 | 171/4 |
| 34 | 7 | 178/4 |
| 35 | 4 | 182/4 |
| 36 | 7 | 189/4 |
| 37 | 5 | 194/4 |
| 38 | 6 | 200/4 |
| 39 | 8 | 208/4 |
| 40 | 8 | 216/4 |
| 41 | 5 | 221/4 |
| 42 | 7 | 228/4 |
| 43 | 6 | 234/4 |
| 44 | 3 | 237/5 |
| 45 | 5 | 242/5 |
| 46 | 4 | 246/6 |
| 47 | 5 | 251/6 |
| 48 | 2 | 253/7 |
| 49 | 5 | 258/8 |
| 50 | 9 | 267/10 |
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matthew Fisher: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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