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New Zealand tour of West Indies · 2026 · Men
11 Jul 2026 · ODI
Providence Stadium, Guyana · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 73%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Campbellcaught · Nathan Smith · Jacob Duffy 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nathan Smith · b Jacob Duffy | 11 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 68.75 |
| Ackeem Augustecaught · Tom Latham · Jayden Lennox 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Jayden Lennox | 38 | 58 | 4 | 0 | 65.52 |
| Keacy Cartycaught · Nathan Smith · Michael Bracewell 10 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Nathan Smith · b Michael Bracewell | 95 | 112 | 10 | 2 | 84.82 |
 Shai Hopenot out4 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 87* | 92 | 4 | 4 | 94.57 |
| Sherfane Rutherfordnot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 22* |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 4% to 88% during the match (West Indies: 12% to 96%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 16 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 137.50 |
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 11 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 10 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 52 | 1 | 7.43 | 10 | 1 |
| Nathan Smith0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 4.57 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayden Lennox0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 55 | 1 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Matthew Fisher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 0 | 51 | 0 | 5.19 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 4.20 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 6.60 | 0 | 0 |
1-28 (John Campbell, 4.5) · 2-92 (Ackeem Auguste, 18.1) · 3-223 (Keacy Carty, 43.4)
Recorded target: 268 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 12/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 19/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 23/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 28/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 34/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 37/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 42/1 |
| 9 | 8 | 50/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 51/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 54/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 59/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 63/1 |
| 14 | 9 | 72/1 |
| 15 | 6 | 78/1 |
| 16 | 4 | 82/1 |
| 17 | 6 | 88/1 |
| 18 | 4 | 92/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 95/2 |
| 20 | 1 | 96/2 |
| 21 | 12 | 108/2 |
| 22 | 6 | 114/2 |
| 23 | 9 | 123/2 |
| 24 | 6 | 129/2 |
| 25 | 1 | 130/2 |
| 26 | 7 | 137/2 |
| 27 | 3 | 140/2 |
| 28 | 4 | 144/2 |
| 29 | 3 | 147/2 |
| 30 | 3 | 150/2 |
| 31 | 2 | 152/2 |
| 32 | 6 | 158/2 |
| 33 | 6 | 164/2 |
| 34 | 6 | 170/2 |
| 35 | 12 | 182/2 |
| 36 | 5 | 187/2 |
| 37 | 7 | 194/2 |
| 38 | 11 | 205/2 |
| 39 | 2 | 207/2 |
| 40 | 4 | 211/2 |
| 41 | 3 | 214/2 |
| 42 | 3 | 217/2 |
| 43 | 4 | 221/2 |
| 44 | 4 | 225/3 |
| 45 | 6 | 231/3 |
| 46 | 12 | 243/3 |
| 47 | 6 | 249/3 |
| 48 | 6 | 255/3 |
| 49 | 13 | 268/3 |
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matthew Fisher: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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