Viking Cup · 2026 · Men

SwedenversusFinland

12 Jun 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Finland won by 1 wickets

Sweden19.3 overs107/10 Finland18.3 overs108/9 Botkyrka Cricket Center, Stockholm ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sweden more likely to win

54%Sweden46%Finland

Why

Sweden are playing at home in Sweden
In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, Finland won 4 and Sweden won 3
On results in T20 internationals so far, Sweden rate stronger than Finland (1,563 vs 1,558 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sweden started on 49%; Sweden batted first.

Sweden’s chance of winning (%) · Finland is the rest

Sweden's chances ranged from 0% to 56% during the match (Finland: 44% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.1: Samiullah Rahmani to Zahidullah Kamal, Faheem Nellancheri out. Sweden up from 21% to 36%.
2nd inns 10.5: Samiullah Rahmani to Jordan O'Brien, Jordan O'Brien out. Sweden up from 28% to 52%.
2nd inns 14.6: Samiullah Rahmani to Hammadullah Shinwari, Hammadullah Shinwari out. Sweden up from 28% to 54%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sweden107/10 Finland108/9

Innings 1

Sweden

107/1019.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sweden batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Imal Zuwaklbw · Amjad Sher 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Amjad Sher	0	3	0	0	0.00
A Mundrabowled · PEA Karunarathna 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b PEA Karunarathna	3	6	0	0	50.00
DB Lakhanicaught · Amjad Sher · NM Salonen 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Amjad Sher · b NM Salonen	12	18	0	0	66.67
Awais Ahmadcaught · Jordan O'Brien · Junaid Khan (2) 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Jordan O'Brien · b Junaid Khan (2)	13	19	0	1	68.42
YS Chauhanbowled · Faraaz Mehti Abbas 2 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Faraaz Mehti Abbas	25	23	2	1	108.70
W Boshoff

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Amjad Sher0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	2	4.25	2	0
PEA Karunarathna0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	22	2	6.29	2	0
Junaid Khan (2)0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	2	3.50	1	0
NM Salonen0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	17	2	4.25	1	1
Hammadullah Shinwari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	20	0	6.67	0	0
Faraaz Mehti Abbas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	13	1	13.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	6	7/2
3	2	9/2
4	4	13/2
5	11	24/2
6	3	27/2
7	7	34/2
8	2	36/3
9	3	39/4
10	3	42/5
11	2	44/5
12	6	50/6
13	7	57/6
14	5	62/6
15	11	73/6
16	13	86/7
17	2	88/8
18	9	97/8
19	5	102/9
20	5	107/10

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