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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
England tour of Sri Lanka · 2025/26 · Men
22 Jan 2026 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 59%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Liam Dawson · Sam Curran 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Liam Dawson · b Sam Curran | 21 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 70.00 |
| Kamil Misharabowled · Adil Rashid 2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Adil Rashid | 27 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 72.97 |
| Kusal Mendisnot out 11 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 93* | 117 | 11 | 0 | 79.49 |
| Dhananjaya de Silvalbw · Adil Rashid 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Adil Rashid | 10 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 47.62 |
| Charith Asalankacaught · Harry Brook · Rehan Ahmed 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Rehan Ahmed | 17 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 106.25 |
 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (England: 0% to 60%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught and bowled · b Adil Rashid |
| 46 |
| 53 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 86.79 |
| Pavan Rathnayakecaught · Jamie Overton · Liam Dawson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Overton · b Liam Dawson | 12 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
| Dunith Wellalagenot out 3 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 25* | 12 | 3 | 1 | 208.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 10 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jamie Overton0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 66 | 0 | 7.33 | 3 | 0 |
 Sam Curran0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Liam Dawson1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 31 | 1 | 3.10 | 5 | 0 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 44 | 3 | 4.40 | 0 | 0 |
 Rehan Ahmed0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 61 | 1 | 6.10 | 1 | 0 |
| Jacob Bethell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-50 (Pathum Nissanka, 10.3) · 2-54 (Kamil Mishara, 13.4) · 3-97 (Dhananjaya de Silva, 21.2) · 4-124 (Charith Asalanka, 26.3) · 5-212 (Janith Liyanage, 42.5) · 6-239 (Pavan Rathnayake, 47.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 20/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 25/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 26/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 29/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 37/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 39/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 43/0 |
| 10 | 6 | 49/0 |
| 11 | 1 | 50/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 51/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 53/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 55/2 |
| 15 | 10 | 65/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 71/2 |
| 17 | 11 | 82/2 |
| 18 | 7 | 89/2 |
| 19 | 1 | 90/2 |
| 20 | 7 | 97/2 |
| 21 | 0 | 97/2 |
| 22 | 1 | 98/3 |
| 23 | 4 | 102/3 |
| 24 | 6 | 108/3 |
| 25 | 3 | 111/3 |
| 26 | 10 | 121/3 |
| 27 | 8 | 129/4 |
| 28 | 1 | 130/4 |
| 29 | 10 | 140/4 |
| 30 | 3 | 143/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 145/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 147/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 153/4 |
| 34 | 3 | 156/4 |
| 35 | 2 | 158/4 |
| 36 | 11 | 169/4 |
| 37 | 6 | 175/4 |
| 38 | 10 | 185/4 |
| 39 | 5 | 190/4 |
| 40 | 1 | 191/4 |
| 41 | 6 | 197/4 |
| 42 | 8 | 205/4 |
| 43 | 8 | 213/5 |
| 44 | 6 | 219/5 |
| 45 | 4 | 223/5 |
| 46 | 6 | 229/5 |
| 47 | 10 | 239/5 |
| 48 | 2 | 241/6 |
| 49 | 7 | 248/6 |
| 50 | 23 | 271/6 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Rehan Ahmed: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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