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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
England tour of Sri Lanka · 2025/26 · Men
22 Jan 2026 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 59%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zak Crawleycaught · Kusal Mendis · Asitha Fernando1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Asitha Fernando | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 54.55 |
 Ben Duckettlbw · Jeffrey Vandersay5 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Jeffrey Vandersay | 62 | 76 | 5 | 1 | 81.58 |
 Joe Rootlbw · Dhananjaya de Silva5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dhananjaya de Silva | 61 | 90 | 5 | 0 | 67.78 |
| Jacob Bethellstumped · Kusal Mendis · Dunith Wellalage 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Kusal Mendis · b Dunith Wellalage | 15 | 33 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (England: 0% to 60%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 45.45 |
 Harry Brookstumped · Kusal Mendis · Charith Asalanka0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Kusal Mendis · b Charith Asalanka | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Jos Buttlerbowled · Pramod Madushan0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Pramod Madushan | 19 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 95.00 |
|---|
 Sam Currancaught and bowled · Dunith Wellalage0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Dunith Wellalage | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 55.56 |
|---|
 Rehan Ahmedcaught · Dunith Wellalage · Jeffrey Vandersay5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dunith Wellalage · b Jeffrey Vandersay | 27 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 128.57 |
|---|
 Jamie Overtoncaught · Dunith Wellalage · Pramod Madushan4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Dunith Wellalage · b Pramod Madushan | 34 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Liam Dawsoncaught · Dhananjaya de Silva · Pramod Madushan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dhananjaya de Silva · b Pramod Madushan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Adil Rashidnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando1 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 64 | 1 | 8.00 | 3 | 1 |
| Pramod Madushan0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.2 | 0 | 39 | 3 | 7.31 | 4 | 0 |
| Dhananjaya de Silva0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 2.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 41 | 2 | 4.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 4.71 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeffrey Vandersay0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 39 | 2 | 3.90 | 1 | 0 |
| Kamil Mishara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-12 (Zak Crawley, 2.5) · 2-129 (Ben Duckett, 27.1) · 3-144 (Joe Root, 32.4) · 4-157 (Harry Brook, 36.4) · 5-159 (Jacob Bethell, 37.3) · 6-165 (Sam Curran, 39.2) · 7-203 (Rehan Ahmed, 44.5) · 8-211 (Jos Buttler, 45.2) · 9-213 (Liam Dawson, 45.4) · 10-252 (Jamie Overton, 49.2)
Recorded target: 272 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 15/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 19/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 25/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 26/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 28/1 |
| 9 | 10 | 38/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 41/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 44/1 |
| 12 | 6 | 50/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 56/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 59/1 |
| 15 | 2 | 61/1 |
| 16 | 10 | 71/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 74/1 |
| 18 | 6 | 80/1 |
| 19 | 8 | 88/1 |
| 20 | 2 | 90/1 |
| 21 | 5 | 95/1 |
| 22 | 2 | 97/1 |
| 23 | 5 | 102/1 |
| 24 | 1 | 103/1 |
| 25 | 8 | 111/1 |
| 26 | 9 | 120/1 |
| 27 | 9 | 129/1 |
| 28 | 1 | 130/2 |
| 29 | 3 | 133/2 |
| 30 | 2 | 135/2 |
| 31 | 4 | 139/2 |
| 32 | 5 | 144/2 |
| 33 | 1 | 145/3 |
| 34 | 1 | 146/3 |
| 35 | 5 | 151/3 |
| 36 | 3 | 154/3 |
| 37 | 4 | 158/4 |
| 38 | 2 | 160/5 |
| 39 | 3 | 163/5 |
| 40 | 5 | 168/6 |
| 41 | 2 | 170/6 |
| 42 | 12 | 182/6 |
| 43 | 2 | 184/6 |
| 44 | 16 | 200/6 |
| 45 | 3 | 203/7 |
| 46 | 10 | 213/9 |
| 47 | 14 | 227/9 |
| 48 | 11 | 238/9 |
| 49 | 14 | 252/9 |
| 50 | 0 | 252/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Rehan Ahmed: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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