SamoaversusPapua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Papua New Guinea rate stronger than Samoa (1,584 vs 1,339 on our results rating)
• In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Papua New Guinea won 5 and Samoa won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Samoa started on 11%; Samoa batted first.

Samoa's chances ranged from 10% to 99% during the match (Papua New Guinea: 1% to 90%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 7.1: AF Aoina to B Tau, B Tau out. Samoa up from 42% to 59%.
2. 2nd inns 8.2: RSM Lili'i to P Siaka, P Siaka out. Samoa up from 54% to 80%.
3. 2nd inns 11.3: O Lefaga to I Toua, I Toua out. Samoa up from 76% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.