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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
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ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
8 Oct 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 92%; Australia batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sadaf Shamascaught · Alyssa Healy · Kim Garth 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alyssa Healy · b Kim Garth | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Muneeba Alicaught · Annabel Sutherland · Megan Schutt 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Annabel Sutherland · b Megan Schutt | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Sidra Ameencaught · Annabel Sutherland · Ashleigh Gardner 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Annabel Sutherland · b Ashleigh Gardner | 35 | 52 | 5 | 0 | 67.31 |
| Sidra Nawazcaught · Alyssa Healy · Kim Garth 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alyssa Healy · b Kim Garth | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Natalia Pervaizcaught · Beth Mooney · Megan Schutt 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Beth Mooney · b Megan Schutt | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
Australia's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 57%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Eyman Fatimabowled · Kim Garth 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kim Garth | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Fatima Sanabowled · Annabel Sutherland 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Annabel Sutherland | 11 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 91.67 |
|---|
| Rameen Shamimbowled · Annabel Sutherland 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Annabel Sutherland | 15 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 23.44 |
|---|
| Diana Baiglbw · Georgia Wareham 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Georgia Wareham | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 87.50 |
|---|
| Nashra Sandhucaught · Alyssa Healy · Alana King 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alyssa Healy · b Alana King | 11 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 26.83 |
|---|
| Sadia Iqbalnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kim Garth0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 2.33 | 3 | 0 |
 Megan Schutt1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 25 | 2 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Alana King0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 3.17 | 0 | 0 |
 Annabel Sutherland1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.3 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 1.76 | 2 | 0 |
 Ashleigh Gardner1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 2.43 | 3 | 0 |
 Georgia Wareham0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 3.75 | 1 | 0 |
1-8 (Sadaf Shamas, 2.4) · 2-24 (Muneeba Ali, 5.3) · 3-29 (Sidra Nawaz, 6.3) · 4-30 (Natalia Pervaiz, 7.4) · 5-31 (Eyman Fatima, 8.4) · 6-49 (Fatima Sana, 12.4) · 7-78 (Sidra Ameen, 21.2) · 8-86 (Diana Baig, 22.4) · 9-111 (Nashra Sandhu, 34.0) · 10-114 (Rameen Shamim, 36.3)
Recorded target: 222 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 9/1 |
| 4 | 10 | 19/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 24/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 29/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 30/3 |
| 8 | 0 | 30/4 |
| 9 | 2 | 32/5 |
| 10 | 5 | 37/5 |
| 11 | 2 | 39/5 |
| 12 | 9 | 48/5 |
| 13 | 1 | 49/6 |
| 14 | 5 | 54/6 |
| 15 | 1 | 55/6 |
| 16 | 2 | 57/6 |
| 17 | 1 | 58/6 |
| 18 | 2 | 60/6 |
| 19 | 6 | 66/6 |
| 20 | 2 | 68/6 |
| 21 | 10 | 78/6 |
| 22 | 1 | 79/7 |
| 23 | 7 | 86/8 |
| 24 | 3 | 89/8 |
| 25 | 2 | 91/8 |
| 26 | 1 | 92/8 |
| 27 | 2 | 94/8 |
| 28 | 0 | 94/8 |
| 29 | 4 | 98/8 |
| 30 | 9 | 107/8 |
| 31 | 2 | 109/8 |
| 32 | 1 | 110/8 |
| 33 | 0 | 110/8 |
| 34 | 1 | 111/9 |
| 35 | 1 | 112/9 |
| 36 | 1 | 113/9 |
| 37 | 1 | 114/10 |
Georgia Wareham: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Megan Schutt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alyssa Healy: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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