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Photo: Myself
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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New Zealand tour of India · 2025/26 · Men
14 Jan 2026 · ODI
Saurashtra Cricket Association Stadium, Rajkot · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 67%; India batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rohit Sharmacaught · Will Young · Kris Clarke4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Will Young · b Kris Clarke | 24 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 63.16 |
 Shubman Gillcaught · Daryl Mitchell · Kyle Jamieson9 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Kyle Jamieson | 56 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 105.66 |
 Virat Kohlibowled · Kris Clarke2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kris Clarke | 23 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 79.31 |
 Shreyas Iyercaught · Michael Bracewell · Kris Clarke0 fours · 0 sixes |
India's chances ranged from 0% to 85% during the match (New Zealand: 15% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Michael Bracewell · b Kris Clarke |
| 8 |
| 17 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 47.06 |
 KL Rahulnot out11 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 112* | 92 | 11 | 1 | 121.74 |
|---|
 Ravindra Jadejacaught and bowled · Michael Bracewell1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Michael Bracewell | 27 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 61.36 |
|---|
 Nitish Kumar Reddycaught · Glenn Phillips · Zakary Foulkes0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Glenn Phillips · b Zakary Foulkes | 20 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 95.24 |
|---|
| Harshit Ranacaught · Michael Bracewell · Jayden Lennox 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Michael Bracewell · b Jayden Lennox | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Mohammed Sirajnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kyle Jamieson2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 70 | 1 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Zakary Foulkes0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 67 | 1 | 7.44 | 2 | 0 |
| Kris Clarke0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 56 | 3 | 7.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Jayden Lennox0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 4.20 | 2 | 0 |
| Michael Bracewell1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 3.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Glenn Phillips0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-70 (Rohit Sharma, 12.2) · 2-99 (Shubman Gill, 16.5) · 3-115 (Shreyas Iyer, 21.3) · 4-118 (Virat Kohli, 23.3) · 5-191 (Ravindra Jadeja, 38.1) · 6-248 (Nitish Kumar Reddy, 46.2) · 7-256 (Harshit Rana, 47.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 2/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 6/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 10/0 |
| 6 | 8 | 18/0 |
| 7 | 13 | 31/0 |
| 8 | 12 | 43/0 |
| 9 | 12 | 55/0 |
| 10 | 2 | 57/0 |
| 11 | 6 | 63/0 |
| 12 | 7 | 70/0 |
| 13 | 9 | 79/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 83/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 87/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 90/1 |
| 17 | 10 | 100/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 102/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 106/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 112/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 114/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 117/3 |
| 23 | 1 | 118/3 |
| 24 | 2 | 120/4 |
| 25 | 2 | 122/4 |
| 26 | 3 | 125/4 |
| 27 | 4 | 129/4 |
| 28 | 6 | 135/4 |
| 29 | 3 | 138/4 |
| 30 | 4 | 142/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 144/4 |
| 32 | 4 | 148/4 |
| 33 | 4 | 152/4 |
| 34 | 8 | 160/4 |
| 35 | 5 | 165/4 |
| 36 | 9 | 174/4 |
| 37 | 7 | 181/4 |
| 38 | 10 | 191/4 |
| 39 | 0 | 191/5 |
| 40 | 8 | 199/5 |
| 41 | 6 | 205/5 |
| 42 | 7 | 212/5 |
| 43 | 10 | 222/5 |
| 44 | 12 | 234/5 |
| 45 | 5 | 239/5 |
| 46 | 7 | 246/5 |
| 47 | 9 | 255/6 |
| 48 | 3 | 258/7 |
| 49 | 14 | 272/7 |
| 50 | 12 | 284/7 |
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Nitish Kumar Reddy: WikiWanderer261 · CC0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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