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Photo: Myself
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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New Zealand tour of India · 2025/26 · Men
14 Jan 2026 · ODI
Saurashtra Cricket Association Stadium, Rajkot · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 67%; India batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Conwaybowled · Harshit Rana 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Harshit Rana | 16 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 76.19 |
| Henry Nichollsbowled · Prasidh Krishna 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Prasidh Krishna | 10 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 41.67 |
 Will Youngcaught · Nitish Kumar Reddy · Kuldeep Yadav7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nitish Kumar Reddy · b Kuldeep Yadav | 87 | 98 | 7 | 0 | 88.78 |
| Daryl Mitchellnot out 11 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 131* | 117 | 11 | 2 | 111.97 |
| Glenn Phillipsnot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 32* | 25 | 2 | 1 | 128.00 |
India's chances ranged from 0% to 85% during the match (New Zealand: 15% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mohammed Siraj0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 4.56 | 3 | 0 |
| Harshit Rana1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.3 | 1 | 52 | 1 | 5.47 | 1 | 0 |
| Prasidh Krishna0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 5.44 | 0 | 0 |
 Nitish Kumar Reddy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Ravindra Jadeja0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 82 | 1 | 8.20 | 0 | 0 |
1-22 (Devon Conway, 5.2) · 2-46 (Henry Nicholls, 12.4) · 3-208 (Will Young, 38.0)
Recorded target: 285 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 20/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 22/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 24/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 26/1 |
| 8 | 0 | 26/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 27/1 |
| 10 | 7 | 34/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 40/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 43/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 47/2 |
| 14 | 10 | 57/2 |
| 15 | 7 | 64/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 69/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 71/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 76/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 79/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 82/2 |
| 21 | 14 | 96/2 |
| 22 | 5 | 101/2 |
| 23 | 8 | 109/2 |
| 24 | 3 | 112/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 117/2 |
| 26 | 2 | 119/2 |
| 27 | 7 | 126/2 |
| 28 | 8 | 134/2 |
| 29 | 7 | 141/2 |
| 30 | 8 | 149/2 |
| 31 | 8 | 157/2 |
| 32 | 9 | 166/2 |
| 33 | 6 | 172/2 |
| 34 | 6 | 178/2 |
| 35 | 9 | 187/2 |
| 36 | 13 | 200/2 |
| 37 | 3 | 203/2 |
| 38 | 5 | 208/3 |
| 39 | 9 | 217/3 |
| 40 | 10 | 227/3 |
| 41 | 5 | 232/3 |
| 42 | 3 | 235/3 |
| 43 | 9 | 244/3 |
| 44 | 8 | 252/3 |
| 45 | 9 | 261/3 |
| 46 | 7 | 268/3 |
| 47 | 11 | 279/3 |
| 48 | 7 | 286/3 |
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Nitish Kumar Reddy: WikiWanderer261 · CC0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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