HampshireversusLancashire

9 Jul 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Lancashire won by 8 wickets

Hampshire20.0 overs174/5 Lancashire19.0 overs175/2 Enborne Lodge, Newbury ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hampshire started on 46%; Hampshire batted first.

Hampshire’s chance of winning (%) · Lancashire is the rest

Hampshire's chances ranged from 1% to 77% during the match (Lancashire: 23% to 99%).

Biggest swings

0.6: TG Norris to R Southby, EA Perry out. Lancashire up from 54% to 64%.
1.5: KL Cross to R Southby, R Southby out. Lancashire up from 64% to 72%.
2nd inns 6.6: MLL Taylor to E Jones, E Jones out. Hampshire up from 41% to 55%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.