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Photo: Younisjunejo
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ICC Women's World Cup Qualifier · 2025 · Women
14 Apr 2025 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 48%; Pakistan batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hayley Matthewslbw · Fatima Sana0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Fatima Sana | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Zaida Jamesrun out · Muneeba Ali, Sidra Nawaz · Diana Baig 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Muneeba Ali, Sidra Nawaz | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
 Shemaine Campbellerun out · Sidra Nawaz · Sadia Iqbal3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sidra Nawaz | 14 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 63.64 |
| Jannillea Glasgowbowled · Nashra Sandhu 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nashra Sandhu | 18 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 72.00 |
 |
Pakistan's chances ranged from 23% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 77%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Sidra Nawaz · b Nashra Sandhu |
| 14 |
| 10 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 140.00 |
| Shabika Gajnabibowled · Fatima Sana 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Fatima Sana | 21 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 52.50 |
|---|
 Stafanie Taylorcaught · Muneeba Ali · Rameen Shamim1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Muneeba Ali · b Rameen Shamim | 17 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 65.38 |
|---|
| Aaliyah Alleynebowled · Rameen Shamim 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rameen Shamim | 22 | 52 | 2 | 0 | 42.31 |
|---|
 Afy Fletchercaught · Nashra Sandhu · Sadia Iqbal0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nashra Sandhu · b Sadia Iqbal | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Ashmini Munisarlbw · Fatima Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Fatima Sana | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Karishma Ramharacknot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 34 | 0 | 0 | 20.59 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fatima Sana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 2.29 | 0 | 0 |
| Sadia Iqbal1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 31 | 1 | 3.88 | 4 | 0 |
| Diana Baig1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 3.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Rameen Shamim1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.2 | 1 | 26 | 2 | 3.12 | 0 | 0 |
| Nashra Sandhu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 3.10 | 1 | 0 |
1-0 (Hayley Matthews, 0.1) · 2-15 (Shemaine Campbelle, 5.3) · 3-29 (Zaida James, 8.5) · 4-53 (Jannillea Glasgow, 11.3) · 5-54 (Chinelle Henry, 12.0) · 6-87 (Stafanie Taylor, 20.5) · 7-97 (Shabika Gajnabi, 25.5) · 8-100 (Afy Fletcher, 26.5) · 9-105 (Ashmini Munisar, 29.4) · 10-126 (Aaliyah Alleyne, 39.2)
Recorded target: 192 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/1 |
| 2 | 0 | 5/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 7/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 11/1 |
| 5 | 0 | 11/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 15/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 19/2 |
| 8 | 10 | 29/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 33/3 |
| 10 | 9 | 42/3 |
| 11 | 10 | 52/3 |
| 12 | 2 | 54/5 |
| 13 | 4 | 58/5 |
| 14 | 4 | 62/5 |
| 15 | 2 | 64/5 |
| 16 | 6 | 70/5 |
| 17 | 3 | 73/5 |
| 18 | 3 | 76/5 |
| 19 | 3 | 79/5 |
| 20 | 2 | 81/5 |
| 21 | 7 | 88/6 |
| 22 | 4 | 92/6 |
| 23 | 1 | 93/6 |
| 24 | 2 | 95/6 |
| 25 | 1 | 96/6 |
| 26 | 1 | 97/7 |
| 27 | 3 | 100/8 |
| 28 | 1 | 101/8 |
| 29 | 3 | 104/8 |
| 30 | 1 | 105/9 |
| 31 | 2 | 107/9 |
| 32 | 2 | 109/9 |
| 33 | 4 | 113/9 |
| 34 | 1 | 114/9 |
| 35 | 2 | 116/9 |
| 36 | 1 | 117/9 |
| 37 | 4 | 121/9 |
| 38 | 0 | 121/9 |
| 39 | 5 | 126/9 |
| 40 | 0 | 126/10 |
Hayley Matthews: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chinelle Henry: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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