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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
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Sri Lanka Women's ODI Tri-Series · 2025 · Women
29 Apr 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 58%; India batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Laura Wolvaardtlbw · Deepti Sharma3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Deepti Sharma | 43 | 75 | 3 | 0 | 57.33 |
| Tazmin Britscaught and bowled · Sneh Rana 13 fours · 3 sixes | caught and bowled · b Sneh Rana | 109 | 107 | 13 | 3 | 101.87 |
| Lara Goodallbowled · Sneh Rana 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sneh Rana | 9 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 81.82 |
| Karabo Mesobowled · Arundhati Reddy 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Arundhati Reddy | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 41.18 |
| Suné Luuscaught · AB Kaur · Shree Charani 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · AB Kaur · b Shree Charani | 28 | 34 |
India's chances ranged from 35% to 99% during the match (South Africa: 1% to 65%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 82.35 |
 Chloe Tryoncaught · AB Kaur · Sneh Rana1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · AB Kaur · b Sneh Rana | 18 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 81.82 |
|---|
| Annerie Dercksencaught · Harleen Deol · Sneh Rana 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Harleen Deol · b Sneh Rana | 30 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Nadine de Klerkbowled · Sneh Rana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sneh Rana | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Masabata Klaasrun out · Arundhati Reddy · Arundhati Reddy 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Arundhati Reddy | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Nonkululeko Mlabarun out · Richa Ghosh, Deepti Sharma · Kashvee Gautam0 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Richa Ghosh, Deepti Sharma | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 133.33 |
|---|
 Ayabonga Khakanot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashvee Gautam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.2 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 6.41 | 0 | 0 |
| Arundhati Reddy0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 59 | 1 | 6.56 | 0 | 1 |
| Sneh Rana0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 43 | 5 | 4.30 | 2 | 0 |
| Shree Charani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 51 | 1 | 5.10 | 0 | 0 |
 Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Pratika Rawal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-140 (Laura Wolvaardt, 27.5) · 2-151 (Lara Goodall, 30.3) · 3-181 (Karabo Meso, 36.4) · 4-207 (Suné Luus, 41.4) · 5-240 (Chloe Tryon, 45.5) · 6-250 (Nadine de Klerk, 47.2) · 7-251 (Annerie Dercksen, 47.4) · 8-252 (Tazmin Brits, 48.0) · 9-253 (Masabata Klaas, 48.2) · 10-261 (Nonkululeko Mlaba, 49.2)
Recorded target: 277 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 21/0 |
| 4 | 12 | 33/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 36/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 45/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 51/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 54/0 |
| 9 | 6 | 60/0 |
| 10 | 1 | 61/0 |
| 11 | 3 | 64/0 |
| 12 | 1 | 65/0 |
| 13 | 7 | 72/0 |
| 14 | 8 | 80/0 |
| 15 | 1 | 81/0 |
| 16 | 6 | 87/0 |
| 17 | 10 | 97/0 |
| 18 | 7 | 104/0 |
| 19 | 2 | 106/0 |
| 20 | 4 | 110/0 |
| 21 | 5 | 115/0 |
| 22 | 7 | 122/0 |
| 23 | 4 | 126/0 |
| 24 | 4 | 130/0 |
| 25 | 3 | 133/0 |
| 26 | 3 | 136/0 |
| 27 | 3 | 139/0 |
| 28 | 1 | 140/1 |
| 29 | 4 | 144/1 |
| 30 | 3 | 147/1 |
| 31 | 5 | 152/2 |
| 32 | 8 | 160/2 |
| 33 | 10 | 170/2 |
| 34 | 1 | 171/2 |
| 35 | 6 | 177/2 |
| 36 | 2 | 179/2 |
| 37 | 2 | 181/3 |
| 38 | 7 | 188/3 |
| 39 | 4 | 192/3 |
| 40 | 4 | 196/3 |
| 41 | 7 | 203/3 |
| 42 | 6 | 209/4 |
| 43 | 7 | 216/4 |
| 44 | 7 | 223/4 |
| 45 | 13 | 236/4 |
| 46 | 4 | 240/5 |
| 47 | 9 | 249/5 |
| 48 | 3 | 252/8 |
| 49 | 2 | 254/9 |
| 50 | 7 | 261/10 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ayabonga Khaka: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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