**Trent Bridge**
Photo: Mattbuck
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

NottinghamshireversusDerbyshire

21 Jun 2024 · T20

Trent Bridge · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Nottinghamshire won by 8 runs

Nottinghamshire20.0 overs173/5 Derbyshire20.0 overs165/8 Trent Bridge ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nottinghamshire started on 51%; Nottinghamshire batted first.

Nottinghamshire’s chance of winning (%) · Derbyshire is the rest

Nottinghamshire's chances ranged from 16% to 98% during the match (Derbyshire: 2% to 85%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.2: OP Stone to SR Patel, SR Patel out. Nottinghamshire up from 40% to 60%.
2nd inns 17.6: OP Stone to BD Guest, 2 runs to BD Guest. Derbyshire up from 36% to 51%.
2nd inns 18.1: BG Lister to WL Madsen, WL Madsen out. Nottinghamshire up from 49% to 74%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nottinghamshire173/5 Derbyshire165/8

Innings 1