Noakhali ExpressversusChattogram Royals

16 Jan 2026 · T20

Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Chattogram Royals won by 5 wickets

Noakhali Express18.5 overs126/10 Chattogram Royals17.0 overs128/5 Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Noakhali Express started on 39%; Noakhali Express batted first.

Noakhali Express’s chance of winning (%) · Chattogram Royals is the rest

Noakhali Express's chances ranged from 0% to 60% during the match (Chattogram Royals: 40% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.4: Ihsanullah to Mahfijul Islam, Mahfijul Islam out. Noakhali Express up from 24% to 36%.
2nd inns 4.2: Sabbir Hossain to Mohammad Naim, Mohammad Naim out. Noakhali Express up from 32% to 58%.
2nd inns 9.3: Zahir Khan to Hassan Nawaz, Hassan Nawaz out. Noakhali Express up from 15% to 36%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.