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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Australia tour of Sri Lanka · 2024/25 · Men
14 Feb 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 48%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Australia: 0% to 57%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankabowled · Aaron Hardie 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Aaron Hardie | 6 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 30.00 |
| Nishan Madushkacaught · Adam Zampa · Ben Dwarshuis 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Adam Zampa · b Ben Dwarshuis | 51 | 70 | 4 | 1 | 72.86 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Matthew Short · Adam Zampa 11 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Short · b Adam Zampa | 101 | 115 | 11 | 0 | 87.83 |
| Kamindu Mendisbowled · Sean Abbott 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sean Abbott | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Charith Asalankanot out 6 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 78* | 66 | 6 | 3 | 118.18 |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 32* |
| 21 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 152.38 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Dwarshuis1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 47 | 1 | 4.70 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Hardie0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 60 | 1 | 6.67 | 4 | 0 |
 Sean Abbott0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 4.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Short0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanveer Sangha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 6.80 | 0 | 0 |
 Adam Zampa0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 5.88 | 1 | 0 |
 Glenn Maxwell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-15 (Pathum Nissanka, 5.3) · 2-113 (Nishan Madushka, 24.4) · 3-121 (Kamindu Mendis, 26.5) · 4-215 (Kusal Mendis, 44.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 8/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 11/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 15/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 19/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 24/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 26/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 27/1 |
| 10 | 13 | 40/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 43/1 |
| 12 | 6 | 49/1 |
| 13 | 1 | 50/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 55/1 |
| 15 | 5 | 60/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 65/1 |
| 17 | 1 | 66/1 |
| 18 | 8 | 74/1 |
| 19 | 8 | 82/1 |
| 20 | 4 | 86/1 |
| 21 | 8 | 94/1 |
| 22 | 10 | 104/1 |
| 23 | 3 | 107/1 |
| 24 | 6 | 113/1 |
| 25 | 2 | 115/2 |
| 26 | 3 | 118/2 |
| 27 | 3 | 121/3 |
| 28 | 3 | 124/3 |
| 29 | 1 | 125/3 |
| 30 | 4 | 129/3 |
| 31 | 2 | 131/3 |
| 32 | 3 | 134/3 |
| 33 | 6 | 140/3 |
| 34 | 8 | 148/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 150/3 |
| 36 | 2 | 152/3 |
| 37 | 10 | 162/3 |
| 38 | 8 | 170/3 |
| 39 | 10 | 180/3 |
| 40 | 4 | 184/3 |
| 41 | 7 | 191/3 |
| 42 | 5 | 196/3 |
| 43 | 9 | 205/3 |
| 44 | 10 | 215/3 |
| 45 | 8 | 223/4 |
| 46 | 7 | 230/4 |
| 47 | 12 | 242/4 |
| 48 | 12 | 254/4 |
| 49 | 10 | 264/4 |
| 50 | 17 | 281/4 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Glenn Maxwell: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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