OneTipOneHand
Bringing the game to you…
Loading your next view.
THE WORLD OF CRICKET. CONNECTED. One game. A global community.
OneTipOneHand
Loading your next view.
Spot an error, a missing record or a photograph that needs attention?
Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Australia tour of Sri Lanka · 2024/25 · Men
14 Feb 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 48%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Australia: 0% to 57%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Shortlbw · Asitha Fernando 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Asitha Fernando | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
 Travis Headcaught · WIA Fernando · Asitha Fernando3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · WIA Fernando · b Asitha Fernando | 18 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Jake Fraser-McGurkcaught · Charith Asalanka · Asitha Fernando 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Charith Asalanka · b Asitha Fernando | 9 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
 Steve Smithlbw · Wanindu Hasaranga3 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 29 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 85.29 |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Dunith Wellalage |
| 22 |
| 27 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 81.48 |
| Aaron Hardiecaught · Kamindu Mendis · Wanindu Hasaranga 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Glenn Maxwellbowled · Dunith Wellalage0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dunith Wellalage | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Sean Abbottlbw · Wanindu Hasaranga0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Ben Dwarshuiscaught · Eshan Malinga · Dunith Wellalage 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Eshan Malinga · b Dunith Wellalage | 9 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 81.82 |
|---|
 Adam Zampabowled · Dunith Wellalage1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dunith Wellalage | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 88.89 |
|---|
| Tanveer Sanghanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 16 | 0 | 0 | 31.25 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 1 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 3 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 3.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.2 | 0 | 35 | 4 | 4.77 | 0 | 0 |
| Eshan Malinga0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5.00 | 1 | 1 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 2 | 23 | 3 | 3.29 | 0 | 0 |
1-16 (Matthew Short, 2.5) · 2-28 (Jake Fraser-McGurk, 5.0) · 3-33 (Travis Head, 6.4) · 4-79 (Josh Inglis, 14.5) · 5-80 (Aaron Hardie, 16.0) · 6-83 (Glenn Maxwell, 16.5) · 7-83 (Steve Smith, 17.1) · 8-86 (Sean Abbott, 19.2) · 9-94 (Ben Dwarshuis, 20.5) · 10-107 (Adam Zampa, 24.2)
Recorded target: 282 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 14/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 20/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 24/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 28/2 |
| 6 | 5 | 33/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 34/3 |
| 8 | 1 | 35/3 |
| 9 | 3 | 38/3 |
| 10 | 10 | 48/3 |
| 11 | 6 | 54/3 |
| 12 | 7 | 61/3 |
| 13 | 6 | 67/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 72/3 |
| 15 | 7 | 79/4 |
| 16 | 1 | 80/5 |
| 17 | 3 | 83/6 |
| 18 | 0 | 83/7 |
| 19 | 3 | 86/7 |
| 20 | 0 | 86/8 |
| 21 | 8 | 94/9 |
| 22 | 6 | 100/9 |
| 23 | 1 | 101/9 |
| 24 | 4 | 105/9 |
| 25 | 2 | 107/10 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Glenn Maxwell: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
.jpg){kind=link}
.jpg){kind=link}
