**Kingsmead, Durban**
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SA20 · 2024/25 · Men

Durban's Super GiantsversusPaarl Royals

23 Jan 2025 · T20

Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Paarl Royals won by 5 wickets

Durban's Super Giants20.0 overs142/7 Paarl Royals17.3 overs146/5 Kingsmead, Durban ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Durban's Super Giants started on 50%; Durban's Super Giants batted first.

Durban's Super Giants’s chance of winning (%) · Paarl Royals is the rest

Durban's Super Giants's chances ranged from 0% to 67% during the match (Paarl Royals: 33% to 100%).

Biggest swings

5.4: E Malinga to Q de Kock, four by Q de Kock. Durban's Super Giants up from 58% to 67%.
2nd inns 0.5: CR Woakes to JE Root, JE Root out. Durban's Super Giants up from 20% to 29%.
2nd inns 3.1: CJ Dala to LG Pretorius, LG Pretorius out. Durban's Super Giants up from 21% to 34%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.