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South Africa Women tour of India · 2024 · Women
23 Jun 2024 · ODI
M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 35%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Laura Wolvaardtcaught and bowled · Arundhati Reddy7 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Arundhati Reddy | 61 | 57 | 7 | 0 | 107.02 |
| Tazmin Britsrun out · Richa Ghosh, Shreyanka Patil · Deepti Sharma 2 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Richa Ghosh, Shreyanka Patil | 38 | 66 | 2 | 1 | 57.58 |
 Marizanne Kappcaught and bowled · Shreyanka Patil0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Shreyanka Patil | 7 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 35.00 |
| Anne Boschcaught and bowled · Arundhati Reddy 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Arundhati Reddy | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 64% during the match (India: 36% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Pooja Vastrakar |
| 13 |
| 23 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 56.52 |
| Nadine de Klerkbowled · Deepti Sharma 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Deepti Sharma | 26 | 46 | 2 | 0 | 56.52 |
|---|
| Nondumiso Shangaserun out · Richa Ghosh, Deepti Sharma · Pooja Vastrakar 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Richa Ghosh, Deepti Sharma | 16 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 55.17 |
|---|
| Mieke de Riddernot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 26* | 31 | 2 | 0 | 83.87 |
|---|
 Nonkululeko Mlababowled · Deepti Sharma0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Deepti Sharma | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Tumi Sekhukhunenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 18 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 6 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shreyanka Patil0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 3.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Arundhati Reddy0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 3.60 | 2 | 0 |
 Pooja Vastrakar0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 54 | 1 | 6.00 | 7 | 0 |
 Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 2.70 | 0 | 0 |
 Radha Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 4.60 | 0 | 0 |
 Smriti Mandhana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-102 (Laura Wolvaardt, 19.5) · 2-104 (Tazmin Brits, 21.0) · 3-114 (Anne Bosch, 23.5) · 4-120 (Marizanne Kapp, 26.4) · 5-143 (Suné Luus, 32.0) · 6-174 (Nondumiso Shangase, 41.2) · 7-178 (Nadine de Klerk, 42.3) · 8-178 (Nonkululeko Mlaba, 42.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 7/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 10/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 14/0 |
| 6 | 7 | 21/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 23/0 |
| 8 | 4 | 27/0 |
| 9 | 2 | 29/0 |
| 10 | 17 | 46/0 |
| 11 | 4 | 50/0 |
| 12 | 3 | 53/0 |
| 13 | 3 | 56/0 |
| 14 | 7 | 63/0 |
| 15 | 11 | 74/0 |
| 16 | 4 | 78/0 |
| 17 | 8 | 86/0 |
| 18 | 4 | 90/0 |
| 19 | 8 | 98/0 |
| 20 | 4 | 102/1 |
| 21 | 2 | 104/2 |
| 22 | 1 | 105/2 |
| 23 | 5 | 110/2 |
| 24 | 4 | 114/3 |
| 25 | 1 | 115/3 |
| 26 | 4 | 119/3 |
| 27 | 1 | 120/4 |
| 28 | 5 | 125/4 |
| 29 | 6 | 131/4 |
| 30 | 6 | 137/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 141/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 143/5 |
| 33 | 3 | 146/5 |
| 34 | 3 | 149/5 |
| 35 | 3 | 152/5 |
| 36 | 3 | 155/5 |
| 37 | 2 | 157/5 |
| 38 | 6 | 163/5 |
| 39 | 2 | 165/5 |
| 40 | 6 | 171/5 |
| 41 | 2 | 173/5 |
| 42 | 3 | 176/6 |
| 43 | 2 | 178/8 |
| 44 | 1 | 179/8 |
| 45 | 2 | 181/8 |
| 46 | 4 | 185/8 |
| 47 | 2 | 187/8 |
| 48 | 9 | 196/8 |
| 49 | 5 | 201/8 |
| 50 | 14 | 215/8 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ayabonga Khaka: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marizanne Kapp: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Pooja Vastrakar: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Radha Yadav: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shafali Verma: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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