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South Africa Women tour of India · 2024 · Women
23 Jun 2024 · ODI
M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 35%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Smriti Mandhanacaught · Ayabonga Khaka · Nonkululeko Mlaba11 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ayabonga Khaka · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 90 | 83 | 11 | 0 | 108.43 |
 Shafali Vermacaught · Anne Bosch · Tumi Sekhukhune4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anne Bosch · b Tumi Sekhukhune | 25 | 39 | 4 | 0 | 64.10 |
| Priya Puniacaught · Anne Bosch · Ayabonga Khaka 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Anne Bosch · b Ayabonga Khaka | 28 | 40 | 3 | 1 | 70.00 |
 Harmanpreet Kaurrun out · Tazmin Brits · Tumi Sekhukhune2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Tazmin Brits |
South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 64% during the match (India: 36% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 42 |
| 48 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 87.50 |
 Jemimah Rodriguesnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 19* | 31 | 1 | 0 | 61.29 |
|---|
 Richa Ghoshnot out0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 6* | 3 | 0 | 1 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ayabonga Khaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 4.22 | 0 | 0 |
| Nadine de Klerk0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 5.63 | 1 | 0 |
| Tumi Sekhukhune0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.4 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 4.96 | 4 | 0 |
 Nonkululeko Mlaba1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 55 | 1 | 5.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Nondumiso Shangase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 7.40 | 0 | 0 |
1-61 (Shafali Verma, 11.5) · 2-123 (Priya Punia, 22.5) · 3-171 (Smriti Mandhana, 30.4) · 4-214 (Harmanpreet Kaur, 40.1)
Recorded target: 216 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 17/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 19/0 |
| 6 | 12 | 31/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 37/0 |
| 8 | 9 | 46/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 50/0 |
| 10 | 3 | 53/0 |
| 11 | 5 | 58/0 |
| 12 | 3 | 61/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 67/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 72/1 |
| 15 | 10 | 82/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 85/1 |
| 17 | 0 | 85/1 |
| 18 | 8 | 93/1 |
| 19 | 5 | 98/1 |
| 20 | 6 | 104/1 |
| 21 | 3 | 107/1 |
| 22 | 9 | 116/1 |
| 23 | 8 | 124/2 |
| 24 | 2 | 126/2 |
| 25 | 7 | 133/2 |
| 26 | 8 | 141/2 |
| 27 | 7 | 148/2 |
| 28 | 7 | 155/2 |
| 29 | 5 | 160/2 |
| 30 | 9 | 169/2 |
| 31 | 2 | 171/3 |
| 32 | 4 | 175/3 |
| 33 | 3 | 178/3 |
| 34 | 5 | 183/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 185/3 |
| 36 | 3 | 188/3 |
| 37 | 8 | 196/3 |
| 38 | 3 | 199/3 |
| 39 | 10 | 209/3 |
| 40 | 5 | 214/3 |
| 41 | 6 | 220/4 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ayabonga Khaka: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marizanne Kapp: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Pooja Vastrakar: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Radha Yadav: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shafali Verma: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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