Mdina Cup · 2025 · Men

BelgiumversusPortugal

1 Jun 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Belgium won by 44 runs

Belgium19.4 overs176/10 Portugal17.5 overs132/10 Stars Arena Hofstade, Zemst ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Portugal more likely to win

28%Belgium72%Portugal

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Portugal rate stronger than Belgium (1,575 vs 1,458 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Portugal won 3 and Belgium won 0
Belgium are playing at home in Belgium

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Belgium started on 25%; Belgium batted first.

Belgium’s chance of winning (%) · Portugal is the rest

Belgium's chances ranged from 24% to 100% during the match (Portugal: 0% to 76%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.2: Murid Ekrami to SP Gomes, SP Gomes out. Belgium up from 66% to 77%.
2nd inns 12.1: Murid Ekrami to J Martins, J Martins out. Belgium up from 71% to 79%.
2nd inns 15.3: Khalid Ahmadi to C Nunes, C Nunes out. Belgium up from 76% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Belgium176/10 Portugal132/10

Innings 1

Belgium

176/1019.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Belgium batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Muhammad Muneebcaught · JAM Henri · U Shantu 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · JAM Henri · b U Shantu	15	14	2	1	107.14
A Razacaught · Natim Hassam · F Stoman 7 fours · 5 sixes	caught · Natim Hassam · b F Stoman	64	24	7	5	266.67
B Niazcaught · Natim Hassam · R Hashu 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Natim Hassam · b R Hashu	35	36	1	2	97.22
Shaheryar Buttcaught · J Martins · JAM Henri 0 fours · 2 sixes	caught · J Martins · b JAM Henri	21	15	0	2	140.00
Saber Zakhilcaught · R Hashu · Sirajullah Khadim 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · R Hashu · b Sirajullah Khadim	4	9	0	0	44.44

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
U Shantu0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	3.4	0	47	2	12.82	2	1
Natim Hassam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	10	0	10.00	0	0
Sirajullah Khadim0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	37	2	9.25	1	0
F Stoman0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	32	1	8.00	4	0
JAM Henri0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	31	1	7.75	0	0
R Hashu1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	17	4	5.67	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	10	17/0
3	5	22/1
4	12	34/1
5	22	56/1
6	13	69/1
7	11	80/1
8	10	90/1
9	8	98/2
10	8	106/2
11	3	109/2
12	4	113/2
13	11	124/2
14	10	134/3
15	3	137/3
16	5	142/4
17	14	156/5
18	7	163/6
19	0	163/9
20	13	176/10

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