Mdina Cup · 2025 · Men

BelgiumversusPortugal

1 Jun 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Belgium won by 44 runs

Belgium19.4 overs176/10 Portugal17.5 overs132/10 Stars Arena Hofstade, Zemst ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Portugal more likely to win

28%Belgium72%Portugal

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Portugal rate stronger than Belgium (1,575 vs 1,458 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Portugal won 3 and Belgium won 0
Belgium are playing at home in Belgium

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Belgium started on 25%; Belgium batted first.

Belgium’s chance of winning (%) · Portugal is the rest

Belgium's chances ranged from 24% to 100% during the match (Portugal: 0% to 76%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.2: Murid Ekrami to SP Gomes, SP Gomes out. Belgium up from 66% to 77%.
2nd inns 12.1: Murid Ekrami to J Martins, J Martins out. Belgium up from 71% to 79%.
2nd inns 15.3: Khalid Ahmadi to C Nunes, C Nunes out. Belgium up from 76% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Belgium176/10 Portugal132/10

Innings 2

Portugal

132/1017.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Portugal batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
SP Gomescaught · A Raza · Murid Ekrami 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · A Raza · b Murid Ekrami	0	2	0	0	0.00
D Norotamcaught · A Raza · Saber Zakhil 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · A Raza · b Saber Zakhil	33	26	4	1	126.92
C Potgieterbowled · Murid Ekrami 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Murid Ekrami	0	1	0	0	0.00
J Martinscaught · A Raza · Murid Ekrami 3 fours · 3 sixes	caught · A Raza · b Murid Ekrami	40	32	3	3	125.00
Natim Hassamcaught · Murid Ekrami · Zaki Ul Hassan 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Murid Ekrami · b Zaki Ul Hassan	28	24	3	1	116.67

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Murid Ekrami0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	21	3	5.25	2	1
Iftikhar Kankhel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	14	0	4.67	0	0
Khalid Ahmadi0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	34	4	8.87	4	0
Zaki Ul Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	2	6.00	0	0
Saber Zakhil0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	33	1	11.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/2
2	6	7/2
3	10	17/2
4	4	21/2
5	16	37/2
6	5	42/2
7	6	48/2
8	9	57/2
9	7	64/3
10	12	76/3
11	10	86/3
12	10	96/3
13	5	101/4
14	4	105/4
15	16	121/4
16	4	125/5
17	3	128/7
18	4	132/10

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