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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Sri Lanka tour of Zimbabwe · 2025 · Men
3 Sept 2025 · T20
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 44%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 1% to 79% during the match (Sri Lanka: 22% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · Tinotenda Maposa 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · b Tinotenda Maposa | 55 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 171.88 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Tinotenda Maposa · Richard Ngarava 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tinotenda Maposa · b Richard Ngarava | 38 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 108.57 |
| Kushal Janith Pereracaught · Brian Bennett · Richard Ngarava 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brian Bennett · b Richard Ngarava | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Nuwanidu Fernandocaught · Sikandar Raza · Blessing Muzarabani 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sikandar Raza · b Blessing Muzarabani | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 77.78 |
| Charith Asalankacaught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · Sikandar Raza 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tadiwanashe Marumani |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Kamindu Mendisnot out 1 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 41* | 16 | 1 | 4 | 256.25 |
|---|
| Dasun Shanakacaught · Tony Munyonga · Brad Evans 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tony Munyonga · b Brad Evans | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Dushan Hemanthanot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 14* | 9 | 2 | 0 | 155.56 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 3 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 2 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Ngarava0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 4.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 12.95 | 0 | 0 |
| Tinotenda Maposa0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 11.75 | 1 | 2 |
| Brad Evans0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Sean Williams0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-96 (Pathum Nissanka, 10.1) · 2-102 (Kushal Janith Perera, 12.1) · 3-103 (Kusal Mendis, 12.3) · 4-106 (Charith Asalanka, 13.1) · 5-125 (Nuwanidu Fernando, 15.3) · 6-142 (Dasun Shanaka, 17.0)
Recorded target: 176 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 19 | 21/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 32/0 |
| 4 | 14 | 46/0 |
| 5 | 11 | 57/0 |
| 6 | 8 | 65/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 73/0 |
| 8 | 7 | 80/0 |
| 9 | 6 | 86/0 |
| 10 | 10 | 96/0 |
| 11 | 2 | 98/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 102/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 106/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 111/4 |
| 15 | 7 | 118/4 |
| 16 | 12 | 130/5 |
| 17 | 12 | 142/6 |
| 18 | 26 | 168/6 |
| 19 | 5 | 173/6 |
| 20 | 4 | 177/6 |
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Williams: Larry D. Moore · CC BY 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
