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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier · 2024 · Men
15 Jun 2024 · T20
Recorded result
France more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
France started on 76%; France batted first.
France's chances ranged from 68% to 100% during the match (Turkey: 0% to 32%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdullah Khan Lodhicaught · Kamran Ahmadzai · S Stanikzay 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamran Ahmadzai · b S Stanikzay | 19 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 79.17 |
| Shamsullah Ehsanbowled · Dawood Ahmadzai 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dawood Ahmadzai | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| R Nathcaught · Rahmatullah Mangal · Kamran Ahmadzai 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rahmatullah Mangal · b Kamran Ahmadzai | 28 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 107.69 |
| I Eleccaught · Usman Khan · Zain Ahmad 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Usman Khan · b Zain Ahmad | 14 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 155.56 |
| Ilyas Ataullahbowled · Kamran Ahmadzai 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kamran Ahmadzai | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| caught · C Roberts · b Kamran Ahmadzai |
| 5 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 62.50 |
| M Ozturkcaught · Rahmatullah Mangal · Dawood Ahmadzai 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Rahmatullah Mangal · b Dawood Ahmadzai | 12 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 85.71 |
|---|
| Serdar Burak Emirbowled · Kamran Ahmadzai 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kamran Ahmadzai | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| GG Altacaught · Ikbal Hossain · Usman Khan 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ikbal Hossain · b Usman Khan | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 120.00 |
|---|
| Muhammed Turkmencaught · HA Jackson · Usman Khan 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · HA Jackson · b Usman Khan | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
| T Turannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 8 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ikbal Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Dawood Ahmadzai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Usman Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| S Stanikzay0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 9.67 | 3 | 0 |
| Zain Ahmad0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Kamran Ahmadzai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-24 (Shamsullah Ehsan, 3.2) · 2-42 (Abdullah Khan Lodhi, 7.0) · 3-75 (R Nath, 10.5) · 4-78 (I Elec, 11.3) · 5-80 (Ilyas Ataullah, 12.2) · 6-89 (A Turkmen, 14.2) · 7-89 (Serdar Burak Emir, 14.5) · 8-108 (M Ozturk, 17.1) · 9-125 (GG Alta, 19.1) · 10-127 (Muhammed Turkmen, 19.3)
Recorded target: 168 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 23/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 25/1 |
| 5 | 8 | 33/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 34/1 |
| 7 | 8 | 42/2 |
| 8 | 8 | 50/2 |
| 9 | 14 | 64/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 68/2 |
| 11 | 7 | 75/3 |
| 12 | 4 | 79/4 |
| 13 | 5 | 84/5 |
| 14 | 5 | 89/5 |
| 15 | 1 | 90/7 |
| 16 | 7 | 97/7 |
| 17 | 11 | 108/7 |
| 18 | 11 | 119/8 |
| 19 | 6 | 125/8 |
| 20 | 2 | 127/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.