GlamorganversusGloucestershire

23 May 2026 · T20

Sophia Gardens, Cardiff · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Gloucestershire won by 2 wickets

Glamorgan20.0 overs157/8 Gloucestershire20.0 overs158/8 Sophia Gardens, Cardiff ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Glamorgan started on 48%; Glamorgan batted first.

Glamorgan’s chance of winning (%) · Gloucestershire is the rest

Glamorgan's chances ranged from 8% to 95% during the match (Gloucestershire: 5% to 92%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 10.2: EO Leonard to James Bracey, James Bracey out. Glamorgan up from 30% to 59%.
2nd inns 13.1: MS Crane to JMR Taylor, JMR Taylor out. Glamorgan up from 23% to 50%.
2nd inns 19.6: Fazalhaq Farooqi to MD Taylor, four by MD Taylor. Gloucestershire up from 35% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Gloucestershire chose to field
Player of the match: Miles Hammond
match referees: SM Bartlett
tv umpires: PK Baldwin
umpires: PR Pollard, Tom Lungley

Match history & source

On 23 May 2026, Glamorgan played Gloucestershire at Sophia Gardens, Cardiff. Recorded result: Gloucestershire won by 2 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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