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ICC Men's T20 World Cup East Asia-Pacific Region Qualifier A · 2024 · Men
24 Aug 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Samoa started on 51%; Samoa batted first.
Samoa's chances ranged from 29% to 98% during the match (Vanuatu: 2% to 72%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nalin Nipikocaught · Darius Visser · Noah Mead 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Darius Visser · b Noah Mead | 9 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 90.00 |
| Clement Tommycaught and bowled · CK Jasmat 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b CK Jasmat | 31 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 124.00 |
| Andrew Mansalecaught · DE Burgess · Noah Mead 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · DE Burgess · b Noah Mead | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Williamsing Nalisacaught and bowled · Darius Visser 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Darius Visser | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Joshua Rasucaught · D Finau · SF Tiai 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · D Finau · b SF Tiai | 13 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 130.00 |
| caught · Darius Visser · b SF Tiai |
| 39 |
| 30 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 130.00 |
| W Wotubowled · Darius Visser 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Darius Visser | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| JP Kaltapaunot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 19* | 17 | 0 | 1 | 111.76 |
|---|
| Tim Cutlercaught · CK Jasmat · SF Tiai 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · CK Jasmat · b SF Tiai | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
| Apolinaire Stephencaught · CK Jasmat · SF Tiai 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · CK Jasmat · b SF Tiai | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| D Wotunot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Mead0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| SM Nash0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 7.50 | 2 | 0 |
| CK Jasmat0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 6.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Darius Visser0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
| SF Tiai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 4 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-15 (Nalin Nipiko, 2.4) · 2-36 (Andrew Mansale, 6.4) · 3-53 (Clement Tommy, 8.3) · 4-60 (Williamsing Nalisa, 9.3) · 5-84 (Joshua Rasu, 13.0) · 6-85 (W Wotu, 13.2) · 7-125 (BA Viraliliu, 17.5) · 8-136 (Tim Cutler, 19.4) · 9-136 (Apolinaire Stephen, 19.5)
Recorded target: 146 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 17/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 21/1 |
| 5 | 8 | 29/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 34/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 38/2 |
| 8 | 14 | 52/2 |
| 9 | 6 | 58/3 |
| 10 | 4 | 62/4 |
| 11 | 4 | 66/4 |
| 12 | 9 | 75/4 |
| 13 | 9 | 84/5 |
| 14 | 7 | 91/6 |
| 15 | 7 | 98/6 |
| 16 | 9 | 107/6 |
| 17 | 14 | 121/6 |
| 18 | 5 | 126/7 |
| 19 | 7 | 133/7 |
| 20 | 4 | 137/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.