Rajasthan RoyalsversusMumbai Indians

24 May 2026 · T20

Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Rajasthan Royals won by 30 runs

Rajasthan Royals20.0 overs205/8 Mumbai Indians20.0 overs175/9 Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Rajasthan Royals started on 47%; Rajasthan Royals batted first.

Rajasthan Royals’s chance of winning (%) · Mumbai Indians is the rest

Rajasthan Royals's chances ranged from 32% to 100% during the match (Mumbai Indians: 0% to 68%).

Biggest swings

4.1: DL Chahar to V Suryavanshi, V Suryavanshi out. Mumbai Indians up from 54% to 66%.
2nd inns 11.3: Yash Raj Punja to WG Jacks, WG Jacks out. Rajasthan Royals up from 80% to 92%.
2nd inns 15.4: JC Archer to HH Pandya, HH Pandya out. Rajasthan Royals up from 71% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Rajasthan Royals205/8 Mumbai Indians175/9

Innings 1