NetherlandsversusHong Kong

19 Jun 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Netherlands won by 83 runs

Netherlands20.0 overs169/5 Hong Kong20.0 overs86/8 Sportpark Maarschalkerweerd, Utrecht ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Netherlands more likely to win

77%Netherlands23%Hong Kong

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Netherlands rate stronger than Hong Kong (1,567 vs 1,462 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Netherlands won 2 and Hong Kong won 0
Netherlands are playing at home in the Netherlands

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Netherlands started on 75%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands’s chance of winning (%) · Hong Kong is the rest

Netherlands's chances ranged from 72% to 100% during the match (Hong Kong: 0% to 28%).

Biggest swings

0.5: M Wai Siu to IJR Zwilling, IJR Zwilling out. Hong Kong up from 22% to 28%.
3.3: Chan Ka Man to P Molkenboer, P Molkenboer out. Hong Kong up from 21% to 27%.
8.1: KY Chan to B de Leede, B de Leede out. Hong Kong up from 14% to 18%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Netherlands169/5 Hong Kong86/8

Innings 2

Hong Kong

86/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Hong Kong batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Natasha Milescaught · Robine Rijke · Iris Zwilling 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Robine Rijke · b Iris Zwilling	0	2	0	0	0.00
Mariko Hillcaught · Robine Rijke · Frederique Overdijk 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Robine Rijke · b Frederique Overdijk	11	15	2	0	73.33
Shanzeen Shahzadcaught · CH van Koolwijk · Frederique Overdijk 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · CH van Koolwijk · b Frederique Overdijk	39	47	1	1	82.98
Kary Chancaught · CH van Koolwijk · Silver Siegers 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · CH van Koolwijk · b Silver Siegers	22	26	1	0	84.62
MBA Lamploughbowled · Silver Siegers 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Silver Siegers	0	2	0	0

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Iris Zwilling1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	18	1	4.50	0
Hannah Landheer0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	7	0	3.50	2
Silver Siegers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	2	4.50	0
Frederique Overdijk0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	10	2	3.33	0
Caroline de Lange0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	16	2	4.00	0
MM Dekeling0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	17	0	5.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/1
2	4	4/1
3	3	7/1
4	3	10/1
5	9	19/1
6	4	23/2
7	6	29/2
8	3	32/2
9	3	35/2
10	10	45/2
11	9	54/2
12	6	60/2
13	5	65/2
14	4	69/2
15	1	70/4
16	7	77/4
17	3	80/5
18	2	82/6
19	3	85/7
20	1	86/8

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