Hobart HurricanesversusMelbourne Stars

3 Nov 2024 · T20

Junction Oval, Melbourne · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Melbourne Stars won by 7 wickets

Hobart Hurricanes20.0 overs133/7 Melbourne Stars17.5 overs136/3 Junction Oval, Melbourne ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hobart Hurricanes started on 45%; Hobart Hurricanes batted first.

Hobart Hurricanes’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Stars is the rest

Hobart Hurricanes's chances ranged from 0% to 48% during the match (Melbourne Stars: 52% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.5: M Kapp to L Lee, L Lee out. Melbourne Stars up from 53% to 64%.
1.2: KJ Garth to DN Wyatt, DN Wyatt out. Melbourne Stars up from 60% to 71%.
2nd inns 4.2: H Graham to IY Mckeon, IY Mckeon out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 19% to 28%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hobart Hurricanes133/7 Melbourne Stars136/3

Innings 1