Dubai CapitalsversusMI Emirates

27 Dec 2025 · T20

Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photograph

Recorded result

MI Emirates won by 8 wickets

Dubai Capitals20.0 overs122/8 MI Emirates16.4 overs126/2 Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Dubai Capitals started on 47%; Dubai Capitals batted first.

Dubai Capitals’s chance of winning (%) · MI Emirates is the rest

Dubai Capitals's chances ranged from 0% to 57% during the match (MI Emirates: 44% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.1: Shakib Al Hasan to Shayan Jahangir, Shayan Jahangir out. MI Emirates up from 46% to 57%.
5.5: AM Ghazanfar to Sediqullah Atal, Sediqullah Atal out. MI Emirates up from 57% to 65%.
7.6: DR Mousley to R Powell, R Powell out. MI Emirates up from 70% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.