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Photo: SounderBruce
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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024/25 · Men
31 Oct 2024 · ODI
Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 50%; Scotland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sushant Modanicaught · Brandon McMullen · Mark Watt 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brandon McMullen · b Mark Watt | 25 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Shayan Jahangirbowled · Brad Currie 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brad Currie | 9 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 69.23 |
| Shadley van Schalkwyklbw · Brad Currie 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Brad Currie | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Monank Patelcaught · Richie Berrington · Jack Jarvis 7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Richie Berrington · b Jack Jarvis | 52 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 115.56 |
| Saiteja Mukkamallabowled · Mark Watt 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mark Watt | 10 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 62.50 |
Scotland's chances ranged from 49% to 100% during the match (United States of America: 0% to 51%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Sanjay Krishnamurthicaught · Michael Leask · Brandon McMullen 7 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Michael Leask · b Brandon McMullen |
| 49 |
| 54 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 90.74 |
| Utkarsh Srivastavacaught · Richie Berrington · Jack Jarvis 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Richie Berrington · b Jack Jarvis | 67 | 63 | 6 | 1 | 106.35 |
|---|
| Harmeet Singhstumped · Matty Cross · Michael Leask 1 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Matty Cross · b Michael Leask | 14 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Jasdeep Singhcaught · Matty Cross · Jack Jarvis 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matty Cross · b Jack Jarvis | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Nosthush Kenjigenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Saurabh Netravalkarbowled · Jack Jarvis 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jack Jarvis | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Currie0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 45 | 2 | 5.63 | 6 | 0 |
| Brandon McMullen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 48 | 1 | 6.86 | 0 | 0 |
| 7.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 3.86 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8.0 | 0 | 48 | 2 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jack Jarvis0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 40 | 4 | 5.71 | 2 | 1 |
| Michael Leask0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-23 (Shayan Jahangir, 5.0) · 2-25 (Shadley van Schalkwyk, 6.3) · 3-70 (Sushant Modani, 12.5) · 4-100 (Saiteja Mukkamalla, 18.2) · 5-115 (Monank Patel, 23.2) · 6-190 (Sanjay Krishnamurthi, 36.1) · 7-225 (Harmeet Singh, 40.5) · 8-233 (Jasdeep Singh, 42.0) · 9-242 (Utkarsh Srivastava, 43.1) · 10-246 (Saurabh Netravalkar, 44.0)
Recorded target: 318 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 7/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 14/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 23/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 24/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 29/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 35/2 |
| 9 | 10 | 45/2 |
| 10 | 14 | 59/2 |
| 11 | 6 | 65/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 68/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 71/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 76/3 |
| 15 | 8 | 84/3 |
| 16 | 5 | 89/3 |
| 17 | 4 | 93/3 |
| 18 | 6 | 99/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 101/4 |
| 20 | 3 | 104/4 |
| 21 | 6 | 110/4 |
| 22 | 2 | 112/4 |
| 23 | 3 | 115/4 |
| 24 | 3 | 118/5 |
| 25 | 5 | 123/5 |
| 26 | 5 | 128/5 |
| 27 | 5 | 133/5 |
| 28 | 8 | 141/5 |
| 29 | 8 | 149/5 |
| 30 | 9 | 158/5 |
| 31 | 8 | 166/5 |
| 32 | 4 | 170/5 |
| 33 | 7 | 177/5 |
| 34 | 6 | 183/5 |
| 35 | 5 | 188/5 |
| 36 | 2 | 190/5 |
| 37 | 8 | 198/6 |
| 38 | 3 | 201/6 |
| 39 | 11 | 212/6 |
| 40 | 10 | 222/6 |
| 41 | 3 | 225/7 |
| 42 | 8 | 233/8 |
| 43 | 9 | 242/8 |
| 44 | 4 | 246/10 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Michael Jones: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brad Wheal: Dave Morton · Public domain
Andrew Umeed: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.