**St George's Park, Gqeberha**
Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2023/24 · Men

Sunrisers Eastern CapeversusMI Cape Town

27 Jan 2024 · T20

St George's Park, Gqeberha · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sunrisers Eastern Cape won by 4 runs

Sunrisers Eastern Cape20.0 overs175/6 MI Cape Town20.0 overs171/7 St George's Park, Gqeberha ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sunrisers Eastern Cape started on 59%; Sunrisers Eastern Cape batted first.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape’s chance of winning (%) · MI Cape Town is the rest

Sunrisers Eastern Cape's chances ranged from 51% to 95% during the match (MI Cape Town: 5% to 49%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.3: OEG Baartman to D Brevis, six by D Brevis. MI Cape Town up from 33% to 49%.
2nd inns 16.4: OEG Baartman to D Brevis, D Brevis out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 51% to 69%.
2nd inns 19.6: DJ Worrall to TP Kaber, 1 run to TP Kaber. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 83% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape175/6 MI Cape Town171/7

Innings 1