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Photo: Paul Williams from United Kingdom
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast Women · 2025 · Women
18 Jul 2025 · T20
The County Ground, Chelmsford · Venue photographRecorded result
Essex started on 44%; Essex batted first.
Essex's chances ranged from 27% to 98% during the match (Durham: 2% to 73%).
Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
On 18 Jul 2025, Essex played Durham at The County Ground, Chelmsford. Recorded result: Essex won by 9 runs.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.