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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026/27 · Men
17 Oct 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 28%; Canada batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YS Samracaught · Karan KC · Dipendra Singh Airee 11 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Karan KC · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 105 | 117 | 11 | 4 | 89.74 |
| Aaron Johnsonbowled · Lalit Rajbanshi 5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 36 | 53 | 5 | 0 | 67.92 |
| Samit Gohellbw · Rohit Kumar 1 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Rohit Kumar | 17 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 77.27 |
| Harsh Thakercaught · Dipendra Singh Airee · Lalit Rajbanshi 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Dipendra Singh Airee · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 34 | 57 | 1 | 1 | 59.65 |
| Hamza Tariqcaught · Karan KC · Sandeep Lamichhane 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Karan KC · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 30 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 115.38 |
Canada's chances ranged from 22% to 93% during the match (Nepal: 7% to 78%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Sandeep Lamichhane |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 60.00 |
| Aaditya Varadarajancaught · S Jora · Lalit Rajbanshi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Jora · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Kaleem Sanabowled · Sandeep Lamichhane 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Sheel Patelbowled · Dipendra Singh Airee 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Sukhjinder Singhstumped · Aasif Sheikh · Lalit Rajbanshi 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Aasif Sheikh · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Zahid Shirzadnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nandan Yadav1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 2.67 | 1 | 0 |
 Karan KC0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 52 | 0 | 8.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 49 | 2 | 5.44 | 1 | 0 |
| Lalit Rajbanshi2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 39 | 4 | 3.90 | 1 | 0 |
 Sandeep Lamichhane1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 49 | 3 | 4.90 | 0 | 0 |
 Rohit Kumar2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 2 | 43 | 1 | 4.78 | 0 | 0 |
1-72 (Aaron Johnson, 13.5) · 2-105 (Samit Gohel, 24.1) · 3-193 (Harsh Thaker, 40.4) · 4-219 (YS Samra, 44.0) · 5-229 (Akhil Kumar, 45.5) · 6-238 (Hamza Tariq, 47.3) · 7-238 (Kaleem Sana, 47.4) · 8-245 (Sheel Patel, 48.5) · 9-253 (Sukhjinder Singh, 49.3) · 10-256 (Aaditya Varadarajan, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 21/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 29/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 31/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 37/0 |
| 8 | 16 | 53/0 |
| 9 | 7 | 60/0 |
| 10 | 2 | 62/0 |
| 11 | 6 | 68/0 |
| 12 | 2 | 70/0 |
| 13 | 2 | 72/0 |
| 14 | 0 | 72/1 |
| 15 | 0 | 72/1 |
| 16 | 6 | 78/1 |
| 17 | 6 | 84/1 |
| 18 | 8 | 92/1 |
| 19 | 0 | 92/1 |
| 20 | 2 | 94/1 |
| 21 | 7 | 101/1 |
| 22 | 1 | 102/1 |
| 23 | 2 | 104/1 |
| 24 | 1 | 105/1 |
| 25 | 4 | 109/2 |
| 26 | 10 | 119/2 |
| 27 | 0 | 119/2 |
| 28 | 13 | 132/2 |
| 29 | 8 | 140/2 |
| 30 | 0 | 140/2 |
| 31 | 10 | 150/2 |
| 32 | 3 | 153/2 |
| 33 | 6 | 159/2 |
| 34 | 4 | 163/2 |
| 35 | 2 | 165/2 |
| 36 | 8 | 173/2 |
| 37 | 4 | 177/2 |
| 38 | 2 | 179/2 |
| 39 | 9 | 188/2 |
| 40 | 3 | 191/2 |
| 41 | 3 | 194/3 |
| 42 | 2 | 196/3 |
| 43 | 12 | 208/3 |
| 44 | 11 | 219/4 |
| 45 | 6 | 225/4 |
| 46 | 4 | 229/5 |
| 47 | 7 | 236/5 |
| 48 | 4 | 240/7 |
| 49 | 5 | 245/8 |
| 50 | 11 | 256/10 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
