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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026/27 · Men
17 Oct 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 28%; Canada batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arjun Kumalcaught · Aaditya Varadarajan · Kaleem Sana 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aaditya Varadarajan · b Kaleem Sana | 87 | 112 | 4 | 0 | 77.68 |
| Aasif Sheikhcaught · Hamza Tariq · Kaleem Sana 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hamza Tariq · b Kaleem Sana | 20 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 95.24 |
| Ishan Pandeycaught · Samit Gohel · Sukhjinder Singh 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Samit Gohel · b Sukhjinder Singh | 21 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 72.41 |
 Rohit Kumarlbw · Zahid Shirzad1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Zahid Shirzad | 18 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 62.07 |
| Basir Ahamadstumped · Hamza Tariq · Sukhjinder Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Hamza Tariq |
Canada's chances ranged from 22% to 93% during the match (Nepal: 7% to 78%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 6 |
| 13 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 46.15 |
 Dipendra Singh Aireecaught · Kaleem Sana · Sukhjinder Singh2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kaleem Sana · b Sukhjinder Singh | 27 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 84.38 |
|---|
 Gulsan Jharun out · Hamza Tariq, Akhil Kumar · Harsh Thaker1 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Hamza Tariq, Akhil Kumar | 21 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 110.53 |
|---|
 Karan KCnot out0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 17* | 14 | 0 | 1 | 121.43 |
|---|
| Nandan Yadavcaught · Akhil Kumar · Sheel Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Akhil Kumar · b Sheel Patel | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Sandeep Lamichhanerun out · Samit Gohel, Hamza Tariq · Sheel Patel0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Samit Gohel, Hamza Tariq | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Lalit Rajbanshilbw · Sheel Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sheel Patel | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 50 | 2 | 6.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Zahid Shirzad0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 5.44 | 1 | 0 |
| Sheel Patel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 4.57 | 1 | 0 |
| Sukhjinder Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 38 | 3 | 3.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Harsh Thaker0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 4.30 | 2 | 0 |
| Akhil Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-37 (Aasif Sheikh, 6.5) · 2-78 (Ishan Pandey, 16.4) · 3-108 (Rohit Kumar, 24.5) · 4-131 (Basir Ahamad, 29.2) · 5-175 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 37.5) · 6-194 (Arjun Kumal, 41.0) · 7-216 (Gulsan Jha, 43.3) · 8-231 (Nandan Yadav, 45.2) · 9-232 (Sandeep Lamichhane, 45.4) · 10-232 (Lalit Rajbanshi, 46.0)
Recorded target: 257 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 21/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 27/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 33/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 36/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 38/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 43/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 47/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 53/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 57/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 59/1 |
| 13 | 3 | 62/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 67/1 |
| 15 | 5 | 72/1 |
| 16 | 4 | 76/1 |
| 17 | 2 | 78/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 82/2 |
| 19 | 6 | 88/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 91/2 |
| 21 | 4 | 95/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 98/2 |
| 23 | 2 | 100/2 |
| 24 | 3 | 103/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 108/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 111/3 |
| 27 | 4 | 115/3 |
| 28 | 8 | 123/3 |
| 29 | 7 | 130/3 |
| 30 | 3 | 133/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 135/4 |
| 32 | 6 | 141/4 |
| 33 | 9 | 150/4 |
| 34 | 2 | 152/4 |
| 35 | 11 | 163/4 |
| 36 | 4 | 167/4 |
| 37 | 6 | 173/4 |
| 38 | 3 | 176/5 |
| 39 | 5 | 181/5 |
| 40 | 6 | 187/5 |
| 41 | 7 | 194/6 |
| 42 | 5 | 199/6 |
| 43 | 9 | 208/6 |
| 44 | 8 | 216/7 |
| 45 | 13 | 229/7 |
| 46 | 3 | 232/10 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
