NetherlandsversusOman

14 Nov 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Netherlands won by 50 runs

Netherlands20.0 overs185/6 Oman20.0 overs135/7 Al Amerat Cricket Ground Oman Cricket (Ministry Turf 1) ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Oman more likely to win

41%Netherlands59%Oman

Why

Oman are playing at home in Oman
In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Oman won 3 and Netherlands won 2
On results in T20 internationals so far, Oman rate stronger than Netherlands (1,502 vs 1,495 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Netherlands started on 37%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands’s chance of winning (%) · Oman is the rest

Netherlands's chances ranged from 20% to 100% during the match (Oman: 0% to 80%).

Biggest swings

0.2: Muzahir Raza to AT Nidamanuru, AT Nidamanuru out. Oman up from 63% to 74%.
2nd inns 6.5: CN Ackermann to Hammad Mirza, Hammad Mirza out. Netherlands up from 75% to 85%.
2nd inns 8.3: CN Ackermann to Aamir Kaleem, Aamir Kaleem out. Netherlands up from 83% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Netherlands185/6 Oman135/7

Innings 2

Oman

135/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Oman batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Jatinder Singhcaught · Scott Edwards · Timm van der Gugten 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Scott Edwards · b Timm van der Gugten	2	5	0	0	40.00
Aamir Kaleemcaught · Bas de Leede · Colin Ackermann 5 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Bas de Leede · b Colin Ackermann	36	22	5	1	163.64
AR Odedaralbw · Timm van der Gugten 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Timm van der Gugten	0	1	0	0	0.00
Hammad Mirzalbw · Colin Ackermann 1 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b Colin Ackermann	23	18	1	1	127.78
Sandeep Goudcaught · Bas de Leede · Roelof van der Merwe 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Bas de Leede · b Roelof van der Merwe	8	9	0	1	88.89

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Vivian Kingma0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	40	0	10.00	2	1
Timm van der Gugten0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	29	2	9.67	0	0
Kyle Klein0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	14	0	4.67	2	0
Colin Ackermann1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	15	3	3.75	0	0
Roelof van der Merwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	11	1	3.67	0	0
Shariz Ahmad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	25	1	8.33	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	6	14/2
3	13	27/2
4	7	34/2
5	5	39/2
6	16	55/2
7	5	60/3
8	8	68/3
9	4	72/4
10	1	73/5
11	0	73/6
12	2	75/6
13	6	81/6
14	2	83/7
15	3	86/7
16	4	90/7
17	8	98/7
18	20	118/7
19	6	124/7
20	11	135/7

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