Perth ScorchersversusSydney Thunder

15 Nov 2024 · T20

Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sydney Thunder won by 7 wickets

Perth Scorchers20.0 overs170/5 Sydney Thunder19.0 overs173/3 Melbourne Cricket Ground ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Perth Scorchers started on 50%; Perth Scorchers batted first.

Perth Scorchers’s chance of winning (%) · Sydney Thunder is the rest

Perth Scorchers's chances ranged from 0% to 77% during the match (Sydney Thunder: 23% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.2: A King to G Voll, AC Jayangani out. Perth Scorchers up from 55% to 66%.
2nd inns 9.1: SFM Devine to P Litchfield, P Litchfield out. Perth Scorchers up from 50% to 63%.
2nd inns 17.6: E Hoskin to G Voll, 2 runs to G Voll. Sydney Thunder up from 84% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.