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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
3 Jun 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 55%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 57% during the match (South Africa: 43% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Quinton de Kockcaught and bowled · Wanindu Hasaranga0 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 20 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 74.07 |
 Reeza Hendrickscaught · Kamindu Mendis · Nuwan Thushara1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Nuwan Thushara | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
 Aiden Markramcaught · Kamindu Mendis · Dasun Shanaka0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Dasun Shanaka | 12 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 85.71 |
| Tristan Stubbscaught · Charith Asalanka · Wanindu Hasaranga 0 fours · 0 sixes |
| 13 |
| 28 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 46.43 |
| Heinrich Klaasennot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 19* | 22 | 1 | 1 | 86.36 |
|---|
 David Millernot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Angelo Mathews0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Nuwan Thushara0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Dasun Shanaka1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Matheesha Pathirana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.2 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 6.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-10 (Reeza Hendricks, 1.3) · 2-23 (Aiden Markram, 4.2) · 3-51 (Quinton de Kock, 10.5) · 4-58 (Tristan Stubbs, 12.5)
Recorded target: 78 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 13/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 9 | 23/1 |
| 5 | 0 | 23/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 27/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 30/2 |
| 8 | 9 | 39/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 42/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 47/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 52/3 |
| 12 | 5 | 57/3 |
| 13 | 1 | 58/4 |
| 14 | 3 | 61/4 |
| 15 | 11 | 72/4 |
| 16 | 3 | 75/4 |
| 17 | 5 | 80/4 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
David Miller: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Reeza Hendricks: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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