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Photo: Krish Dulal
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Women's T20 World Cup Qualifier · 2025/26 · Women
22 Jan 2026 · T20
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 87%; Netherlands batted first.
Netherlands's chances ranged from 76% to 99% during the match (Nepal: 1% to 24%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bindu Rawalrun out · Robine Rijke, Iris Zwilling · Robine Rijke4 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Robine Rijke, Iris Zwilling | 18 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 120.00 |
| Samjhana Khadkacaught · Heather Siegers · Robine Rijke 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Heather Siegers · b Robine Rijke | 14 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 175.00 |
| Puja Mahatobowled · Caroline de Lange 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Caroline de Lange | 8 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 38.10 |
| I Barmabowled · I van der Woning 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b I van der Woning | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
| K Shresthacaught · Babette de Leede · I van der Woning 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Babette de Leede |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
 Rubina Chhetrinot out5 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 37* | 32 | 5 | 0 | 115.63 |
|---|
 Kabita Joshicaught · Sterre Kalis · I van der Woning2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sterre Kalis · b I van der Woning | 13 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 72.22 |
|---|
| K Kunwarstumped · Babette de Leede · Silver Siegers 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Babette de Leede · b Silver Siegers | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Sita Rana Magarnot out4 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 27* | 12 | 4 | 1 | 225.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 7 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iris Zwilling0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Heather Siegers0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 5.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Silver Siegers0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 9.33 | 0 | 1 |
| Robine Rijke0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 18.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Frederique Overdijk0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Caroline de Lange0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 1 | 1 |
| I van der Woning0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 5.33 | 1 | 1 |
1-22 (Bindu Rawal, 3.1) · 2-35 (Samjhana Khadka, 3.5) · 3-48 (I Barma, 7.2) · 4-52 (K Shrestha, 8.0) · 5-62 (Puja Mahato, 10.4) · 6-92 (Kabita Joshi, 15.5) · 7-93 (K Kunwar, 16.2)
Recorded target: 141 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 13 | 21/0 |
| 4 | 18 | 39/2 |
| 5 | 5 | 44/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 45/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 47/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 52/4 |
| 9 | 1 | 53/4 |
| 10 | 2 | 55/4 |
| 11 | 8 | 63/5 |
| 12 | 6 | 69/5 |
| 13 | 6 | 75/5 |
| 14 | 5 | 80/5 |
| 15 | 8 | 88/5 |
| 16 | 5 | 93/6 |
| 17 | 4 | 97/7 |
| 18 | 20 | 117/7 |
| 19 | 11 | 128/7 |
| 20 | 10 | 138/7 |
Kabita Joshi: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sita Rana Magar: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rubina Chhetri: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Bindu Rawal: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
