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Lesotho tour of Botswana · 2025/26 · Men
15 Mar 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Botswana more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Botswana started on 87%; Botswana batted first.
Botswana's chances ranged from 72% to 100% during the match (Lesotho: 0% to 29%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Saiyedlbw · Inshaf Farook 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Inshaf Farook | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 54.55 |
| V Mbazocaught · Mohammed Jamadar · Bahlakoana Mejaro 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammed Jamadar · b Bahlakoana Mejaro | 11 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 73.33 |
| L Maphanecaught · Tanki Alber Khetsi · Ts'episo Chaoana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tanki Alber Khetsi · b Ts'episo Chaoana | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
| Reginald Nehondecaught · Maaz Khan · Abraar Khan 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Maaz Khan · b Abraar Khan | 33 | 34 | 1 | 1 | 97.06 |
| P Silascaught · Ts'episo Chaoana · Inshaf Farook 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ts'episo Chaoana · b Inshaf Farook | 25 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 119.05 |
| Thatayaone Tshosecaught · Maaz Khan · Lefulere Monanthane 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Maaz Khan · b Lefulere Monanthane |
| 6 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 75.00 |
| K Pietnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 16* | 14 | 1 | 0 | 114.29 |
|---|
| Dhruv Maisuriarun out · Inshaf Farook, Maaz Khan · Inshaf Farook 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Inshaf Farook, Maaz Khan | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inshaf Farook0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 4.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Mohammed Jamadar0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 5.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Ts'episo Chaoana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Bahlakoana Mejaro0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Abraar Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Lefulere Monanthane0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-12 (Ameer Saiyed, 2.2) · 2-21 (L Maphane, 4.3) · 3-27 (V Mbazo, 6.0) · 4-79 (P Silas, 13.2) · 5-87 (Thatayaone Tshose, 15.1) · 6-93 (Reginald Nehonde, 16.3) · 7-114 (Dhruv Maisuria, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 16/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 19/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 23/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 27/3 |
| 7 | 1 | 28/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 33/3 |
| 9 | 9 | 42/3 |
| 10 | 7 | 49/3 |
| 11 | 7 | 56/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 62/3 |
| 13 | 15 | 77/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 82/4 |
| 15 | 5 | 87/4 |
| 16 | 4 | 91/5 |
| 17 | 5 | 96/6 |
| 18 | 5 | 101/6 |
| 19 | 6 | 107/6 |
| 20 | 7 | 114/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.