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Photo: Kathy Lachina
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South Africa tour of Pakistan · 2025/26 · Men
6 Nov 2025 · ODI
Iqbal Stadium, Faisalabad · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 61%; Pakistan batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LG Pretoriuscaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Mohammad Wasim 7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Mohammad Wasim | 46 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 115.00 |
 Quinton de Kocknot out8 fours · 7 sixes | not out | 123* | 119 | 8 | 7 | 103.36 |
| Tony de Zorzicaught · Saim Ayub · Fahim Ashraf 9 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Saim Ayub · b Fahim Ashraf | 76 | 63 | 9 | 3 | 120.63 |
| Matthew Breetzkenot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 17* | 21 | 1 | 0 | 80.95 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 3 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 62% during the match (South Africa: 38% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Bowler |
|---|
| Overs |
|---|
| M |
|---|
| R |
|---|
| W |
|---|
| Runs / 6 balls |
|---|
| WD |
|---|
| NB |
|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 5.86 | 0 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Naseem Shah0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 5.67 | 1 | 1 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 6.95 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Wasim0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 48 | 1 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 6.67 | 1 | 1 |
| Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 9.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Hussain Talat0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-81 (LG Pretorius, 11.5) · 2-234 (Tony de Zorzi, 34.2)
Recorded target: 270 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 23/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 28/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 30/0 |
| 7 | 10 | 40/0 |
| 8 | 8 | 48/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 52/0 |
| 10 | 13 | 65/0 |
| 11 | 9 | 74/0 |
| 12 | 7 | 81/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 89/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 90/1 |
| 15 | 5 | 95/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 98/1 |
| 17 | 12 | 110/1 |
| 18 | 2 | 112/1 |
| 19 | 4 | 116/1 |
| 20 | 9 | 125/1 |
| 21 | 11 | 136/1 |
| 22 | 3 | 139/1 |
| 23 | 17 | 156/1 |
| 24 | 2 | 158/1 |
| 25 | 13 | 171/1 |
| 26 | 12 | 183/1 |
| 27 | 9 | 192/1 |
| 28 | 4 | 196/1 |
| 29 | 10 | 206/1 |
| 30 | 7 | 213/1 |
| 31 | 2 | 215/1 |
| 32 | 9 | 224/1 |
| 33 | 4 | 228/1 |
| 34 | 5 | 233/1 |
| 35 | 3 | 236/2 |
| 36 | 6 | 242/2 |
| 37 | 2 | 244/2 |
| 38 | 6 | 250/2 |
| 39 | 9 | 259/2 |
| 40 | 10 | 269/2 |
| 41 | 1 | 270/2 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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