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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier · 2024 · Men
12 Jun 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Portugal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Portugal started on 65%; Portugal batted first.
Portugal's chances ranged from 0% to 79% during the match (Austria: 21% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Vijaycaught · Amar Naeem · Imran Asif 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Amar Naeem · b Imran Asif | 42 | 35 | 4 | 2 | 120.00 |
| Azhar Andanilbw · Aqib Iqbal 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Aqib Iqbal | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Suman Ghimirenot out 5 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 53* | 43 | 5 | 0 | 123.26 |
| ARA Chamberscaught · Imran Asif · Bilal Zalmai 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Imran Asif · b Bilal Zalmai | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Najjam Shahzadcaught · Karanbir Singh · Abdullah Akbarjan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Karanbir Singh · b Abdullah Akbarjan | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 44.44 |
| stumped · Abrar Bilal · b Karanbir Singh |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 133.33 |
| Amir Zaiblbw · Abdullah Akbarjan 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Abdullah Akbarjan | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| F Stomancaught · Abrar Bilal · Abdullah Akbarjan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Abrar Bilal · b Abdullah Akbarjan | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| JAM Henrirun out · Abdullah Akbarjan · Abdullah Akbarjan 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Abdullah Akbarjan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Sirajullah Khadimcaught · Abrar Bilal · Abdullah Akbarjan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Abrar Bilal · b Abdullah Akbarjan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Syed Maisam Alinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aqib Iqbal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Waqar Zalmai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 8.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Bilal Zalmai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Imran Asif0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 6.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Abdullah Akbarjan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 3.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Karanbir Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-9 (Azhar Andani, 2.1) · 2-74 (J Vijay, 9.4) · 3-85 (ARA Chambers, 12.3) · 4-96 (Najjam Shahzad, 15.0) · 5-101 (Amandeep Singh, 15.4) · 6-104 (Amir Zaib, 16.3) · 7-114 (F Stoman, 18.1) · 8-114 (JAM Henri, 18.2) · 9-117 (Sirajullah Khadim, 19.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 19/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 23/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 26/1 |
| 6 | 14 | 40/1 |
| 7 | 11 | 51/1 |
| 8 | 12 | 63/1 |
| 9 | 10 | 73/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 74/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 77/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 84/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 85/3 |
| 14 | 7 | 92/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 96/4 |
| 16 | 7 | 103/5 |
| 17 | 4 | 107/6 |
| 18 | 7 | 114/6 |
| 19 | 3 | 117/9 |
| 20 | 8 | 125/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.